China's Arctic Ambitions: Geopolitical Shifts and Responses: How China's Influence in the Arctic Challenges Global Powers and Shapes Regional Security
Drift ice camp in the middle of the Arctic Ocean as seen from the deck of icebreaker Xue Long
As we enjoy summer and the sun rises over the Arctic, the region's melting snow reveals more than just polar tracks on the thinning ice. It uncovers the new geopolitical battleground where global powers want to expand their influence, and China is seizing its opportunity.
Arctic countries are already grappling with the impacts of climate change whilst dealing with China's Arctic ambitions. Pressure is present, and the need for the Arctic countries to be unified and respond strategically is urgent. As the bear tracks are fading and the ice melts, China is increasing its influence by extracting minerals and building its route.
The growing Chinese presence in the Arctic signifies a challenge for the powers. It is is neither close geographically nor historically to the Arctic. However, being an ally of Russia and enjoying its support in geopolitical matters like this, China has begun to create points of contention between world powers in the Arctic.
A recent Newsweek investigation unveils China’s primarily warlike operations in the Arctic, hidden behind research and mineral extractions. China is forbidden from discussing its defense establishment and showing transparency in the dual use of research for civilian and military purposes, which raises additional security questions.
The Arctic Council entered a new phase in the 21st century, primarily establishing a more united region and a council to deal with the area’s affairs. The Arctic Council is crucial. Despite a one-year suspension due to Russia’ war against Ukraine. Its importance remains.
China is an observer state, along with Japan, India, and South Korea. As a non-arctic country, its success remains based on its push-in strategy and capacity to deepen cooperation with international agreements. However, Arctic Nations see China's success as a new power trying to reshape the governance of the Arctic.
China's first step in the Arctic was in 2003, when it established its first research base in Svalbard, Norway. Since 2003, China has been active in research activities to gain regional influence and access. It has invested over $90 billion in the Arctic Circle in the infrastructure of minerals and energy sectors. In 2018, China published the Arctic Strategy to increase investment in the Arctic and created the "near-arctic state" title.
China will continue with dual-use scientific research activities which promote maritime security cooperation of military assets to the Arctic. Using scientific research will increase China's voice in managing the Arctic. For example, in 2020, China conducted a maritime law enforcement project known as "Deep Sea Defender 2020" for international submarine internet cables in the common areas of the Arctic region.
However, the United States, Finland, and Canada responded to China with a newly announced "Ice Pact" to build a fleet of polar icebreakers to constrain China's influence. The deal was announced in 2024 at the NATO summit in Washington, where the leaders of the Arctic nations, the United States, Canada, and Finland, recognised the region's importance in national, economic, and climate security.
Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, said the idea of the collective measure is to implement a plan for the collaboration on building highly complex and critical vessels for their allies in the Antarctic and Arctic regions. Canada will build two polar icebreakers in its capital and a fleet of six from Quebec as part of the deal.
Regarding climate change in the Arctic, China expressed its interest in new polar routes for military and trade purposes. China can achieve this with the help of Russia, as the two countries have signed an agreement for cooperation in the Arctic. Russia continues to have the largest Arctic fleet. The Ice Pact is essential to counter China’s malign influence and work together to ‘break the ice,’ so to speak, creating a constructive environment for cross-collaboration in the Arctic.
The competition between major powers in the Arctic brings pressures and crises to the region and Arctic nations. Arctic nations have attached their interests and opportunities to gain more influence and practicalities that will exceed their strength and territory. However, China is a new player that is challenging Arctic nations to advance their plans.
China's growing presence introduces a complex dynamic for the strategic adaptation of the Arctic nations. China's involvement can bring conflict as well as disrupt established agreements. It is a race that will go on for years.
This article was written by Arta Haxhixhemajli. Arta is a Kosovar researcher, a non-resident fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a policy fellow with Young Voices Europe. Her research covers international relations, security, and geopolitics.
