Beyond Steadfast Defender 2024: Advocating for Enhanced Military Preparedness on NATO’s Eastern Flank

By Paulius Razukevicius

In response to escalating instability in Europe and unprecedented and aggressive actions by Russia in Ukraine, NATO has demonstrated its resolve and operational readiness by conducting Steadfast Defender 2024, the largest military exercise since the Cold War. This strategic deployment, involving approximately 90,000 troops from all NATO Allies, is a clear testament to the Alliance’s commitment to collective defence and its capability to respond decisively to emerging threats across the Euro-Atlantic area.

Steadfast Defender 2024 consists of a series of distinct exercises conducted across various strategic locations in Europe, each designed to test different facets of NATO’s defensive capabilities. The series begins with the deployment of United States and Canadian Task Groups across the Atlantic, showcasing the ability to rapidly reinforce its European Allies. This is followed by exercises such as Brilliant Jump in Germany and Poland, which tests the quick mobilization of the NATO Response Force (NRF). Additionally, Dragon 24 mobilizes a significant force in Poland with 20,000 soldiers and 3,500 units of equipment from various NATO countries, alongside 15,000 Polish Armed Forces personnel. Building on the extensive array of Steadfast Defender 2024 activities, Defender 24 plays a pivotal role. Organized by the U.S. European Command, this annual exercise is crucial for deploying land forces from North America to Europe, highlighting joint reception, staging, onward movement, and integration with NATO Allies. It serves as the foundational framework for multiple exercises aimed at enhancing military mobility and readiness. Included under the Defender 24 umbrella are key exercises such as Saber Strike 24, focusing on rapid deployment of forces and cold weather training in the Baltics; Immediate Response 24, a joint exercise to enhance interoperability between NATO Allies; and Swift Response, where the U.S.-led Immediate Response Forces conducts joint airborne operations to strengthen NATO’s assurance and deterrence efforts. Other notable exercises include Crystal Arrow in Latvia, focusing on precision tactics, and Swift Response 24 in Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, enhancing multinational airborne operations. The series concludes with Grand Quadriga in Lithuania, aimed at improving command and control, as well as rapid response capabilities.[i]

Despite the comprehensive nature and scale of these exercises, there is a notable need for further enhancement, particularly within the Baltic region. Given the strategic importance and ongoing geopolitical tensions in this area, increasing the frequency and scale of the current exercises in the region could provide a more robust demonstration of NATO’s readiness and deterrence capabilities. This article emphasizes the necessity for continuous strategic assessment and expansion of NATO’s exercise initiatives to better address and adapt to the evolving security challenges facing the Alliance, especially on the Eastern Flank and the Baltics.

The persistent threat from Russia positions Eastern Flank members like the Baltic States directly on the potential frontline of aggression. However, the exercises conducted thus far, while impressive in scope, are often skewed towards Western or Central Europe. By shifting larger-scale exercises to areas like the Baltic States, NATO would not only enhance its defensive posture but also send a clearer message of deterrence directly where it is most critically needed.

Furthermore, the escalated Russian rhetoric and actions, including the deployment of nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad and Vladimir Putin’s endorsement of Belarus’ request for nuclear weapons, heighten the urgency for NATO to bolster its presence in the East. Regular nuclear response exercises should be considered essential to demonstrate NATO’s readiness to counteract nuclear threats.[ii] Such strategic military and nuclear preparedness are vital to counter the “bully” tactics historically employed by Russia, which rely on perceived weaknesses. Strengthening NATO’s presence and readiness in the Baltic region is not merely a tactical adjustment but a necessary shift to ensure the long-term security and stability of its member states.

Current NATO Forces’ Deployments

While the Baltic States have significantly modernized their military forces since the end of the Soviet era, transitioning to NATO-standard equipment and reinstating mandatory military conscription to strengthen their defence capabilities, there remains a critical discrepancy in NATO forces’ deployment that disproportionately affects smaller nations. Despite substantial advancements, including Lithuania’s planned acquisition of main battle tanks and extensive new armaments in Latvia and Estonia, the NATO enhanced forward presence battle groups stationed in these countries are minimal compared to larger states like Poland, where approximately 10,000 U.S. military personnel are rotated regularly.[iii] This existing deployment strategy is seemingly based on the premise that “the smaller the country, the fewer personnel required”, and fails to account for the strategic vulnerabilities and geopolitical threats these nations face. NATO should increase its presence in smaller, more vulnerable countries to ensure a robust defence posture that is proportionate to the magnitude of the threat they face. Throughout the past 20 years, all three Baltic States have continued to prove their unwavering commitment to the NATO Alliance and deserve to receive more protection from other member states.

Poland is undergoing a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar defence modernization program that includes massive purchases from the United States. Such purchases include M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks, Javelin missiles and Javelin command launch units, F-35 fighters, AIM-120C-7 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, Patriot air defence systems, and Apache attack helicopters. It is estimated that Poland will have the biggest tank fleet in Europe and the second largest Apache attack helicopter fleet in the world after the United States. Poland is among the highest spenders on defence in NATO, with an estimated 4% GDP expenditure for 2024, which is more than US $33 billion.[iv] By analysing Poland’s military modernization, it is obvious that in the next five to ten years, Poland will be an extremely powerful military power and will be more than capable of defending itself even without the support of the United States military. On the other hand, such improvement by Poland is a positive sign for the Baltic States because, in case of an attack, Poland would most likely be the first country to come in to defend these states if NATO’s Article 5 is activated.[v]

During Steadfast Defender 24, the United Kingdom notably increased its military support to Poland. As confirmed by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a joint press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the UK plans to deploy Typhoon fighter jets to help defend Polish airspace. In addition, the deployment will include 16,000 British troops. While this bolstering of Poland’s defence capabilities has been commendable during the exercise, it showcases a strategic oversight for the public of the Baltic States.[vi] The United Kingdom, as the lead nation of the multinational battlegroup in Estonia, could consider the reallocation of at least a portion of these forces over there. As explained above, Poland, with its more substantial military infrastructure and larger defence budget than all three Baltic States combined, is better equipped to withstand the initial stages of conflict until additional NATO support arrives. Moreover, such visible support would significantly boost the morale of Baltic citizens, reinforcing the message that their security is a high priority for NATO and enhancing public confidence in the Alliance’s commitment to their defence.

Changes in geopolitical stability in Europe and the war in Ukraine have shown the importance of cooperation among NATO allies. In peacetime, the concept of cooperation was often forgotten and rather focused on separate national interests. Cooperation ensures that smaller states undergo necessary transformations, bolstering their defence capabilities. It strengthens regional security, ensuring that threats are addressed collectively rather than in isolation. Through cooperation, member states can align their defence strategies, ensuring interoperability during joint operations. Also, it fosters trust that every member, regardless of its size or power, has a voice and plays a pivotal role in shaping the Alliance’s future. Cooperation is the bedrock upon which an alliance’s resilience and effectiveness are built.

Rethinking NATO’s Nuclear Weapons Sharing Agreement

The United States of America, the United Kingdom, and France are the three NATO allies that own nuclear weapons. Today, the U.S. has deployed its nuclear weapons in six bases in five NATO members: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Türkiye to deter Russian aggression in the region.[vii] This nuclear arsenal consists of B61 gravity bombs, which are designed to be dropped from allied bombers or fighter aircraft. However, it should be noted that the nations hosting these weapons do not possess nuclear capabilities themselves, and the decision to use these bombs remains strictly under U.S. control.

Recently, Polish President Andrzej Duda expressed Poland’s readiness to host NATO nuclear weapons if agreed upon by the Alliance following Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus.[viii] Although the discussion among Allies has yet to begin, this statement made by the Polish president could indicate a potential re-evaluation of NATO’s current nuclear sharing agreement, which could fundamentally change the Alliance’s nuclear posture against Russia.

NATO maintains a commitment to arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation, yet it acknowledges the necessity of remaining in a nuclear alliance as long as nuclear weapons exist. The ideal of a nuclear-free world remains elusive, particularly given the aggressive nuclear posturing of regimes like Russia. With Russia’s recent deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus, directly on NATO’s borders, the question arises: If Russia can move its nuclear weapons to NATO’s borders, why should NATO not respond? The absence of a nuclear component in the ongoing Steadfast Defender 24 exercises highlights a critical gap that seems increasingly out of step with the current security environment. In response, it is imperative for the NATO Alliance to regularly incorporate nuclear exercises into its defence planning and consider the strategic relocation of American-deployed nuclear weapons throughout Europe or consider incorporating the United Kingdom’s or French nuclear forces. This is not an easy topic; however, this adjustment would effectively counterbalance the nuclear stance between the Alliance and Russia. The Alliance should not be afraid to overstep “red lines” drawn by Russia for the sake of their security. Once again, Russia thrives on making threats, which allows it to continuously destabilize peace in Europe.

Conclusion

Steadfast Defender 24 demonstrates NATO’s robust operational readiness and commitment to defending its members, showcasing the Alliance’s largest military exercise since the Cold War. However, the exercise also highlights critical areas for improvement, particularly for a greater focus on the Baltic region’s strategic vulnerabilities. As NATO faces escalated threats, especially from Russia’s nuclear posturing, it is imperative to reassess both its nuclear and conventional defence strategies. Hopefully, the current leaders of the Euro-Atlantic area will remain committed to creating not just a safer Europe but a safer world, which will impact the future generation of leaders who will continue to fight for maintaining peace and the rule of law.

About the Author

Paulius Razukevicius, who holds a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from Boston University, has an acute understanding of global security, focusing on NATO’s strategic initiatives. Mentored by renowned experts from Boston University, his skills in policy development and defence readiness have been finely honed. His work with the Atlantic Treaty Association showcases his commitment to NATO’s goals and democratic principles. Razukevicius advocates for increased military exercises on NATO’s eastern flank, emphasizing the need for a strong deterrence posture against potential aggressors to ensure stability. His stance on re-evaluating NATO’s strategy to enhance its deterrence capabilities reflects a comprehensive grasp of geopolitical threats. Razukevicius’s insights into defence policy highlight the importance of strategic foresight within NATO’s operational framework.

Notes

[i] “Steadfast Defender 2024,” NATO, last updated March 8, 2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/222847.htm#timeline.

[ii] Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, “Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Mapping U.S. and Russian Deployments,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 30, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/nuclear-weapons-europe-mapping-us-and-russian-deployments.

[iii] “Increasing the US Military Presence in Poland - Ministry of National Defence - Gov.Pl Website,” Republic of Poland, Ministry of National Defence, accessed October 5, 2023, https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/increasing-the-us-military-presence-in-poland.

[iv] “U.S. Security Cooperation with Poland,” U.S. Department of State, October 31, 2022, https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-poland/.

[v] Dylan Malyasov, “UK to Deploy Typhoon Fighter Jets to Poland,” Defence Blog, April 24, 2024, https://defence-blog.com/uk-to-deploy-typhoon-fighter-jets-to-poland/.

[vi] Ibid.

[vii] “NATO’s Nuclear Sharing Arrangements,” NATO Factsheets, February 2022, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/2/pdf/220204-factsheet-nuclear-sharing-arrange.pdf.

[viii] “Poland’s Leader Says His Country Is Ready to Host NATO Members’ Nuclear Weapons to Counter Russia,” ABC News, April 22, 2024, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/polands-leader-country-ready-host-nato-members-nuclear-109490755.

Cover image from Dylan Malyasov, “UK to Deploy Typhoon Fighter Jets to Poland,” Defence Blog, April 24, 2024, https://defence-blog.com/uk-to-deploy-typhoon-fighter-jets-to-poland/