Airspace safety over the Baltics
NATO’s Baltic Air-Policing mission was launched in 2004, since then, countless Russian military aircraft have been recorded breaching Baltic airspace. The Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian governments have condemned the reoccurring overflights, yet this has not limited the number of regular Russian airspace breaches. In 2019, NATO air-policing fighter jets had to scramble 200 times, showing the need for NATO’s presence in the region to ensure that the independence of the three Baltic states is not threatened. This article argues that the regular breach of Baltic airspace is a tool used by Russia to exert pressure on the Baltic states and NATO. This is only one of many weapons at Russia’s disposal, used alongside political pressure, propaganda, and economic dependence. Whether or not this form of Russian aggression can be considered as hybrid warfare, is of utmost importance for the sovereignty of the Baltic states to limit the number of airspace breaches. The aim of this article is to discuss possible remedies for this situation, offering means for how to deal with the problem in both conventional and non-conventional manners.
By Viesturs Bērziņš
The intricate geopolitical situation of the Baltics
Throughout history, the Baltic region has been a complex geopolitical landscape. Many different powers have held control over the territory of the modern-day Baltic states. There has been a wide array of explanations as to why foreign powers seek control over the Baltics. One of the main reasons why the area is oftentimes contested is because of the proximity of the Baltic Sea. Historically, the sea has been strategically important, since not only does it offer access to valuable resources, it also ensures neighbouring entities access to the Atlantic Ocean. The possibility to freely move between the Baltic Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, however, is both important economically and strategically, as the Atlantic connects Europe to the rest of the world. Even though the region’s geographical location is very desirable, it is geopolitically complicated to be located on the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea. For Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, being located on the eastern coast of the sea means not only having the perks that the sea provides but also bordering the Russian Federation. Although this location does provide a unique opportunity for trade and collaboration, the downsides of neighbouring Russia oftentimes exceed the advantages.
History has shown us that the eastern neighbour of the Baltic states has always been interested in controlling this region. The territories of modern-day Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia were all a part of the Russian Empire as well as the Soviet Union. Although there are still various opinions on whether or not the Baltic states were voluntarily taking part in these empires[i], most experts agree that it was not their choice to be a part of either the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union.[ii]
After Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia regained their independence as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, they decided to pursue a different path and set goals to join several Western-orientated intergovernmental organizations like the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This, however, did not sit well with the newly founded Russian Federation, as Russia had been used to having significant influence over the Baltics. With the three Baltic states integrating within the “West”, they slowly drifted further away from the control of Russia. This transition from the “East” to the “West” has provoked Russia to seek measures on how to slow down the Westward integration of the Baltic states. Even though there are several ways in which the Russian Federation attempts to influence Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, throughout this article we will focus on how Russia provokes the Baltic states and its NATO allies by breaching Baltic airspace. This article will also offer a brief overview of how NATO and the Baltic states are ensuring that the skies above the Baltics remain safe, as well as what measures are not currently taken but in the future could become advantageous.
The current situation above the Baltics
Before delving deeper into Russia’s threats to the three Baltic states, it is necessary to introduce what measures are currently being undertaken regarding Baltic airspace security. Both Baltic and NATO efforts to keep the skies above the territory safe are equally important, thus it is of utmost importance not only to explore what NATO is doing to keep the skies safe but also consider the Baltic States’ efforts as well.
Even though most efforts to protect Baltic airspace are conducted jointly by NATO and the Baltic states, it is important to recognise what the three small states are doing by themselves in order to ensure safety in their skies. First of all, not all nation-states have an active air force. Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all have independent air force units, which is the first step for keeping their airspace safe. Each state has an air force base within its territory, thus there are three air force bases in the Baltic states in total. Although functional, they employ a relatively small number of people. As we can see in map 1, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all have approximately between 300 and 1,000 units stationed at their air force bases at all time. In comparison, the neighbouring Russian air force has approximately 148,000 available units enlisted in the air force, the Belarusian air force consists of roughly 18,000 available personnel; whereas NATO ally Poland has approximately 36,000 units enrolled in the air force. As the states neighbouring the Baltics have significantly stronger air forces, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia thus have to ensure the safety of their skies not through force but by alternative means.
When Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia all joined NATO in 2004, they started conducting air-policing missions with the help of NATO allies. In the beginning, only Zokniai airbase, which is located in Lithuania, was used for this purpose. In 2014, the Amari airbase in Estonia was also chosen for this task. The Zokniai airbase is also commonly known as the Sauliai airbase due to the vicinity of the nearby city. Even though there are only two bases from which the mission is being conducted, it is enough to cover the territory of the Baltic states. NATO’s air-policing missions in the Baltics are a crucial safety measure, conducted on a rotational basis. The air forces of the Baltic states are not sufficiently large enough to successfully ensure the safety of their airspace, thus other Allies help enforce the sovereignty of the Baltic airspace. Currently, the air-policing mission in the Baltics is conducted by the Spanish, French, and British air forces, which took over the responsibility from Belgium and Poland. One must not forget the fact that by taking part in NATO Air-Policing missions, the respective pilots patrolling the skies gain valuable flight hours to stay alert in case of a serious military threat. Even though it might seem that the Baltic states are receiving more than they can offer, this is not necessarily the case. NATO guidelines suggest each member state to use 2% of their GDP for defence expenditures, which the Baltic States are successfully achieving on a continuous basis. As the Alliance has a military focus, it is logical that some members focus on aerial defence, whereas others have different focal points. It is also worth noting that the Baltic Air-Policing mission can practice together with the enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) battlegroup, as the relatively small distance that both military entities has to cover is small enough to allow such cooperation, which could be difficult to organise in another setting. Although air-policing missions are a great way to help defend the skies, in case of an invasion, the Baltic states rely heavily on the proximity of nearby Allies. The Polish, German, and Danish air forces are the closest NATO members that the Baltic states can rely on in case of an attack.
Threats to the region
Previously in this article, we established that the Baltic states are located in a complicated geography. This also includes the skies above the three small states. Since Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia joined NATO, relative airspace security has increased drastically; yet, there are still threats to the sovereignty of Baltic airspace. As the modern world heavily relies on air transportation, it is of utmost importance to ensure the safety of this particular airspace, as NATO’s easternmost bases are located in the Baltics.
According to NATO officials, in 2019 the Baltic air-policing mission had to scramble around 200 times to safeguard its territory. This means that the fighter jets ensuring Baltic airspace security had to lift off more than once every two days because of a possible threat. Not only does this signal that there is an active threat, but it also implies that the airspace borders are not being respected by some third parties, as trespassing happens on a reoccurring basis. It is important to note that the scrambling of fighter jets not only occurs when the sovereign airspace is breached, it also happens when a plane gets too close to Allied airspace without permission. Thus, it is hard to distinguish between the occurrences when a breach takes place and when it is dangerously close to happening. Although incidents where the airspace is breached for an extended period are relatively uncommon, every year there is a significant number of reports of Russian planes breaching Baltic airspace for short periods of time. Occasionally these breaches are justified by some abnormal circumstances like the weather suddenly changing,[i] yet most of the time the breaches are not justified, classified as an error, or the plane has had the transponder switched off.[ii] As flying with the transponders turned off is legal, it is not characteristic for a military plane to do so, thus it can only be regarded as a provocation towards the Baltic states and NATO, since this happens so regularly. It is relevant to note that accidents happen to everyone, as NATO fighter jets have also breached non-member state airspace.[iii] We can accept that a number of mistakes can be made, but by all logic, the number of accidental airspace breaches should decrease with both NATO and Russia seeing technological advances throughout the years. This, however, has not been the case. To put things in perspective, in 2013 there were only 43 such cases when Russian airplanes needed to be intercepted by Allied air-policing fighter jets; yet in 2015 there were 160 such cases, and in 2016 NATO had recorded 110 such breaches.[iv] As previously stated, in 2019 there were around 200 times when Allied fighter jets had to scramble, and there was a significant increase in cases where interruption was needed. Although the large majority of the times in which air-policing units have had to scramble were because of an approaching Russian plane, there have been recorded instances of other, non-Russian planes breaching Baltic airspace as well.[v] While these occurrences are not frequent, this matter should not be disregarded. Just because most other states do not currently pose a threat to the sovereignty of Baltic airspace, it does not mean that in the future this will not be a possibility; therefore, attention must be paid even to infrequent airspace breaches.
The Baltic arms race
As we have previously discussed in this article, Russia has increased the number of airplanes breaching the Baltic airspace or approaching it throughout the years. This is done in such a provocative nature, it sends a message that the Russian Federation can cause serious difficulty for NATO member states if not treated with extreme caution. Russia is constantly exploring how close can get to Baltic airspace before its planes are escorted away.
After the illegal annexation of Crimea, many states became much more wary of Russia and its manoeuvres. Some of the NATO member states that are in close proximity to Russia’s borders requested more assistance from the Alliance. This resulted in NATO deploying six warplanes to the Baltic states, and an additional 600 troops were sent to the Baltic states and Poland to signify that NATO is ready to defend its members in case of Russian aggression. The Russian Federation did not ignore the increase of NATO’s military presence along its borders and responded by deploying 24 warships and bombers to its Kaliningrad base, which borders Lithuania and Poland, both members of NATO. After that, NATO organized a large military drill in Lithuania, with 2,500 servicemen attending as a response to the previous signs of Russian aggression.[vi] This is just one example of how Russia responds to NATO, and NATO then responds to Russia again—similar incidents have happened in the Baltic states on a fairly regular basis. This ongoing military build-up from both sides is starting to look like an escalation of tensions, perhaps signifying the start of a Baltic arms race between Russia and the NATO member states. If this is an active arms race, this could explain the increase in Russian airspace activity, as this could be Russia’s way of saying that it will not allow further militarization near its borders from NATO and its Allies.
Another explanation as to why there has been an increase in airspace breaches by Russian military airplanes could be that Russia is simply testing the limits of NATO as well as its member states. If we recall in 2015, NATO member Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet near its borders.[vii] This was a clear indication that Turkey is not going to allow Russia to breach its airspace, although this was an unprecedented incident for a NATO member state to respond to an air-space breach in such a manner. As incidents like these are rare, Russia is perhaps testing NATO’s limits both politically and militarily. It is trying to establish how far it can provoke the Baltic states until some kind of response is given.
Remedies and solutions
In the 21st century, many ways in which to counter aggression have been discovered, yet oftentimes older, already proven tactics work best. When trying to develop a solution to the regular Russian airspace breaches, one must consider both conventional and highly controversial tools, as the situation is rather unique at its core.
A good starting point for any kind of solution is dialogue. In 2003, the NATO-Russia Council was established, where several times a year both parties meet to discuss current affairs. Perhaps it could be fruitful to create a similar option for dialogue exclusively between the Baltic states and Russia. Although there are diplomatic links between Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Russia, it might be better to address the problem as a common Baltic problem, as many of the threats Russia poses to the region impact all three Baltic states.
If working toward a golden middle ground fails, more aggressive options must be considered. After the Crimean annexation in 2014, economic sanctions were created to punish the Russian Federation for its wrongdoings. Even though the results were not devastating, it did hurt the Russian economy. Perhaps if the eastern neighbour of the Baltic states would be punished more often, it could reap better yields. This, however, is a double-edged sword, as sanctions would hurt the Baltics as well. Although the regions closest to the border of the Baltic states would hurt the most from traditional economic sanctions, this would also provide Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia the possibility to diversify their economy more towards Poland, Finland, and other nearby states.
A third possible response to Russian aerial breaches would be focusing more on defensive technology. Perhaps, if the Russian Federation would see that the Baltics are well-equipped to deal with such threats, it would shift Russia’s attention elsewhere. Even though it is not likely that any of the Baltic states can actually match the military capabilities of the Russian Federation, it would be a step in the right direction to invest more in defensive infrastructure, perhaps even with the help of NATO, as it would be in the Alliance’s best interest to strengthen their eastern border. This solution could also trigger a counter-reaction from Russia, possibly triggering an arms race.
Fourthly, there is another solution for the regular airspace breaches by Russian planes, yet in the modern geopolitical world, this solution would border on science fiction. As we have already established, the Baltic states are no match for Russia from a military perspective and rely on the support of Allies. Yet, if a Russian plane goes too deep in the Baltic territory, there could be no other choice than to shoot it down. As previously mentioned, this is a highly unlikely scenario, but it would be a very firm statement against Russian aggression. This would clearly mean serious consequences for the Baltics and its Allies, yet if the situation arises, there might be no other way out. This option should only be used as a last resort.
The last solution I would like to offer is a somewhat unconventional one. Throughout many conferences and forums where I have met NATO officials and other people involved in global security, the expansion of military technology is of primary importance. Thus, I would propose developing new technologies, perhaps something similar to a radar jammer, which would then force trespassing airplanes to return to their home bases due to the malfunctioning of their equipment. Albeit a very broad suggestion, the development of new technologies to combat the threats in the Baltics is increasing in probability, especially as military technology is being researched and large amounts of money are being provided to leading military scientists. In this case, a new and innovative way of countering Russian aggression seems to be a likely solution.
About the author
Viesturs Bērziņš is a Latvian graduate student at Aalborg University in Denmark, pursuing a degree in Development and International Relations. Previously he was studying European Studies at the Southern University of Denmark at the undergraduate level. His areas of interest revolve around international relations and security, particularly in the Baltic Sea region, Russian foreign policy, and the Arctic.
[i] Jukka Rislakki and Richard Impola, “The Case for Latvia: Disinformation Campaigns Against a Small Nation Fourteen Hard Questions and Straight Answers about a Baltic Country,” Expand second, 1 ed., vol. 15. (Amsterdam, Netherlands: Rodopi, 2014;2008), 142–148; 212.
[ii] Olaf Mertelsmann, “The Baltic States under Stalinist Rule,” vol. band 4 (Koln, Germany; Weimar, Germany; Wien, Germany: Bohlau Verlag, 2016) 71–73.[i] BNS, “Russian Military Plane Enters Lithuanian Airspace Due To Bad Weather,” 12 August 2019, Lrt.Lt, https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1087503/russian-military-plane-....
[iii] AP, “Russian Aircraft Violates Airspace of NATO Member Estonia,” 24 September 2019, AP NEWS, https://apnews.com/c26f31956ed949eb800dbe632f3c52f0.
[iv] Alex Hollings, “NATO Jets Intercept Russian Military Aircraft Near Estonia, Accidentally Violate Finland's Air Space,” SOFREP, 2 August 2017, https://sofrep.com/news/nato-jets-intercept-russian-military-aircraft-ne....
[v] Luke Coffey and Daniel Kochis, “Time for the Baltic Air-Policing Mission to Become the Baltic Air Defense Mission,” The Heritage Foundation, 2 October 2017.
[vi] Kiril Cachovskij, “Lithuania accuses Belarus of violating its airspace,” Lithuanian Tribune, 12 August 2016, https://lithuaniatribune.com/lithuania-accuses-belarus-of-violating-its-....
[vii] Agnia Grigas, Beyond Crimea: The New Russian Empire (London: Yale University Press, 2016), 168–171.
[viii] Mark Galeotti, “Why Did It Take Turkey Just 17 Seconds To Shoot Down Russian Jet?” The Guardian, 26 November 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/26/russia-turkey-jet-mark-gal....