The future is climate security
By Roger Hilton and Jordan Sweeney, this article was originally published by NEW EUROPE on March 23 2021.
Along the Rue de la Loi in Brussels the statement “the Future is Europe” is plastered on a mural. Given the difficulties the continent is currently experiencing, it would be ill-conceived to consider this declaration a given. From the sluggish COVID-19 vaccine rollout to an increasingly competitive international and security order, a combination of factors are now threatening Europe’s placement in the top rungs of global influence.
If the traditional elements of domestic governance and external statecraft were not enough of a challenge for the EU, the ongoing animation of “global weirding” due to climate change is complicating Europe’s objectives even more. The current von der Leyen Commission has promised that Europe, under her leadership, will be greener and more geopolitically focused. Her Commission now has an opportunity to champion climate security that should not be squandered. If “the Future is Europe”, then the EU and it is member states will have to step up their commitment and action on climate security to fulfil its ambitions and advance its strategic autonomy agenda.
The benefits in favor of implementing climate-focused policy are obvious. Scientific data suggests that Europe, and the world, should brace for more extreme weather events as well as frequent natural disasters. Within Europe, these developments will pressure local economies, disrupt supply chains, destroy businesses and homes, and erode critical infrastructure to name a few consequences.
Outside of the continent, climate change is already injecting more security instability into Europe’s periphery, which includes some of the most vulnerable regions when it comes to hard security threats and climate-related disasters. Knock-on effects like increased migration due to a lack of economic opportunities or basic food security, as well as the potential for emerging health security issues, like the spread of transmissible diseases, are inevitable by-products to grapple with.
As the world has learned from COVID-19, infectious diseases are not confined to their country of origin. Given the domestic and external consequences of letting climate change go unchecked, building up more early warning systems to increase situational awareness and developing more climate security foresight would be in the strategic interest of the EU. It would benefit EU policymakers to be pre-emptive and engage in more mitigation efforts instead of reacting too late in the aftermath of a crisis when most of the damage has already occurred.
The economic reasoning behind adopting more serious climate security policies is also compelling. Amid a major economic downturn, investing heavily in more sustainable infrastructure and retrofitting existing buildings to cope with extreme weather patterns would not only jumpstart local economies in member states but is also a logical method for increasing both societal and economic resilience. This policy would also reduce private insurance payouts to citizens and national emergency relief payments by the EU in the post-disaster period, which are hitting all-time records.
Furthermore, investing in more EU green innovation firms focusing on viable transition energy sources or renewable battery storage sources, with dual civilian-military use applications, would not only be commercially advantageous for firms, but also bolster the EU’s preparedness. Not only would these investments provide platforms for structed and mutually beneficial dialogue with the private sector, which drives innovation, but they would encourage European market champions to compete with American and Chinese heavyweights.
These innovation targets also extend to the military domain. On the infrastructure level, providing investment resources for member states to retrofit aging military installations offers the same advantage when it comes to boosting resilience, which would also provide another avenue to offset major carbon emissions. The advantages of using these technologies on member state deployments are also clear: when compared to the traditional use of petrochemicals, using solar-powered microgrids both reduces operational logistics and grants more autonomy to large-scale operations while reducing costs. Consequently, the money saved could be reinvested into new research and development programs or allocated to ongoing projects. Furthermore, the military advantages of these climate-friendly, cost-cutting practices will only intensify over time as the electrification of equipment and weapons systems continues to scale up.
Outside of the continent, the EU can also bring more stability to volatile regions where its peacekeepers are deployed through the delivery of updated, environmentally conscious military doctrine and training techniques. EU peacekeepers have a unique opportunity to promote green practices and encourage climate resilience in host nations and should use current and future missions to do so. When possible, sharing technology that would contribute to offsetting carbon emissions should also be considered. Decreasing the reliance of developing nations on fossil fuels and increasing military preparedness for natural disasters would also promote long-term stability in Europe’s periphery and minimize the chance of hard and human security spillovers hitting Europe’s shores. To date, NATO and the EU have agreed to 74 common actions, where closer collaboration on climate security cooperation and procurement would represent another milestone in this burgeoning relationship.
On the diplomatic front, a more robust EU climate security profile could be used by the EU as another engagement instrument to work with traditional partners and allies as well as competitors. Neither China nor Russia is immune to climate change and both should welcome the chance to engage in climate security projects that could be packaged as confidence-building measures and allow the EU to compartmentalize its relations with rivals. Given the magnitude of managing climate change and its fallout, it would be irresponsible not to work with all parties.
Although it is impossible to guarantee that the future will be strongly European, we can certainly assume that it will be complex and chaotic. For the EU to survive the impending climate change ride and assert its global ambitions, embracing climate security is the tonic to thrive.