The End of Democracy? How Democracies Navigate Change
By Maryna Karlevits. Originally published in the thirty-second issue of Ukraine Analytica.
In recent decades, democratic societies have faced both external and internal threats that have caused them to struggle. Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s interference in Brexit and U.S. elections – these are some of the challenges modern democracies face today. The effectiveness of democracy is still up for debate, but one key factor is the investment in mechanisms and institutions. The role of our values and the institutions we build today is critical. During times of war and pandemics, how do democratic values and principles adapt? How should national governments and the international community navigate these threats and changes? This article aims to address these important questions.
Introduction
Since Francis Fukuyama’s End of History[1], the most fundamental question is whether democracy is cracking down and whether it faced the challenges it is unable to address properly. But there is nothing more consistent than something unstable. Thus, the discussions on the crisis of democracy are among the hottest. In recent decades, the world has faced numerous crises, such as armed conflicts, financial instability and pandemics and this is important to evaluate how the democratic states deal with such challenges.
Once the Cold War was over, there was a common belief that the world was leaning towards globalisation and cooperation with mutual benefits being more important than territorial disputes and spheres of influence. International organisations and alliances have become valuable instruments in building stronger communities and responding to emerging threats.
However, the new era has brought new challenges that the liberal democracies were unable to properly address. The UK announced its withdrawal from the EU which became a huge challenge to the core idea of European unity. The question of whether the EU membership is really that beneficial for a country created much fuss among the other EU member states, and first of all, the first-speed states.[2] After the results of the voting over Brexit, the world discovered Russia’s troll factories which targeted the UK citizens to vote in favour of Brexit.[3] The likelihood of the EU’s disunity has never been more real. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has once again opened the door to populists who were seizing the momentum to destabilise the governments which found themselves in a situation that had never happened before. Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 shocked the whole world with unprecedented atrocities, and at the same time has once again brought up a question of democratic unity and stability in the world. The authoritarian regimes like Russia, China and Iran started uniting, terrorist organisations like HAMAS are being openly backed by Russia and Iran, and the current geopolitical order as we know it is likely coming to an end.
All of the mentioned events significantly contributed to destabilising the existing geopolitical system and massively influenced the rule of law. It has become clear that the values and principles should be inalienable with the actions. At the same time, one should have the capability to protect the values and principles declared. Therefore, if modern democracies want to remain in power and continue flourishing and developing, there are three main pillars on which governments should rely on strong institutions, military power and multilateralism.
Institutions and Democracy
Even the most sustainable democracies might become subject to external and internal threats. Russia’s involvement in the US elections and the UK vote on Brexit[4] demonstrated how easily society’s moods can swing based on targeted ads on social media. Mark Zuckerberg’s[5] and Shou Zi Chew’s[6] testimonies before the U.S. Congress are illustrative examples of how data is important today and governments around the world either try to find ways to protect it or to use it for their own benefit. Various spyware technologies, such as Pegasus[7] or even TikTok[8] are used to destabilise democratic foundations from the inside.
Criminal investigations, two impeachment inquiries and the Capitol attack – Donald Trump’s presidency definitely was a stress test for U.S. democracy. Nevertheless, the country that introduced the system of checks and balances to the world has passed the test successfully. Checks and balances is not only a good political science theory, it is a working mechanism where the separation of powers ensures that the country works as a single organism. When one of the branches fails, it eventually leads to abuse of power and corruption in the state. If eventually, Donald Trump wins the presidential elections in 2024 again, will the American democratic system pass the test again? The history will show.
Institutions, not personalities, make sure that the country is functioning properly, addresses the challenges it faces, and gets the support it needs. In 2022, Ukraine surprised the world and itself: not only the country did not fall in the first 24, 48 or 72 hours, but continued to fight in the next days and months, the banking system continued to work, and the mobile network did not disappear. People left aside all the complaints and arguments with the state, coalition and opposition disappeared and there was a united parliament and a united country instead.
One of the main reasons why the U.S. and the EU help Ukraine is because the country is still functioning even under the existential threat from the largest nuclear country in the world. Would have Ukraine been supported that much if its government had escaped? Most likely, it would look much like the support of the modern governments in exile like Belarus and Ichkeria. This would be enough just for occasional reminders about the nation’s struggle at international conferences but not to win the war.
When a country lacks strong institutions, it seeks bright personalities. On October 30, TIME published an article underlining the key role of Ukraine’s President in this war.[9] The article itself seems to be rather critical (which is not a surprise given the author’s articles on Ukraine back in 2014[10]) and full of false narratives. But at the same time, it raises questions of corruption, possible reforms and struggles which followed Zelenskyy’s latest visit to the USA. The foreign partners constantly remind us about the necessity to perform substantial reforms to maintain the country’s well-being and to ensure the recovery of its economy in the future.[11] The message is very clear: statehood and strong institutions are the things that have to be developed further.
Can personal leadership be useful? Of course. When it comes to giving an easy and clear signal to foreign audiences, this is truly a beneficial and effective tool. This is what happened when the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started: the President of Ukraine became the war leader and even was compared to Winston Churchill[12] who was leading his country through the horror of the war to the victory. This is an easy and catchy message for the countries that are far away from Ukraine: here’s the good guy and that one is the bad guy.
However, in the long run, the country needs a clear vision, a long-lasting strategy and a working system. Personalities come and go; they leave their trace on the pages of history books. Politicians have to invest in the institutions rather than in their political image. This is what ensures that the country would work, and would be their greatest political achievement.
Bright personalities can also easily be found among populists who offer easy and quick solutions to difficult issues. When Donald Trump promises to end the war in Ukraine in one hour with one phone call if he’s elected again, the average American taxpayer finds it a great deal. They don’t want to get into much detail about the reasons and consequences of such a decision; they need an easy solution to a complex problem.
Populist offers quick solutions to difficult issues, and true democracy offers hard and long-term solutions with long-term results. You can either lose your weight with a magic pill in two weeks or do regular sports and good nutrition and have stability in your results. Obviously, everyone would want the former without thinking of the consequences but the latter definitely works better.
Military and Democracy
“Democracy needs to be backed up militarily,” this is what Latvia's Foreign Minister Krišjānis Karins said at the PACE session in October 2023.[13] Once the Cold War was over, the world believed that the era of globalisation and interconnectivity began and would remain the same for years to come. Such a state of things led to the belief that the majority of the world is seeking democracy, however, it is a common misperception. According to the V-Dem study in 2022, “dictatorships are on the rise and harbour 70% of the world population – 5.4 billion people.”[14] This makes democracy only one of the options which the country can voluntarily choose as the model for its development.
A constant strive of the democratic states to seek negotiations and express their ‘concerns’ is only perceived by the dictators as weakness and permission to move further. The world was so inspired by the promises of the new Russian government seeking democratic development of the country, that it ignored the Chechen wars[15]. It later ignored Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, being unsure about whether Georgia provoked the war or not. Once again, the world ‘condemned’ and ‘shared its concerns’ but rejected any military response to the unlawful actions for the sake of not escalating the conflict further.[16] It took eight years and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine for the world to start realising that the Russian Federation is not interested in becoming a democratic European state. In fact, it seeks to conquer it and destabilise the democratic world as much as possible.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, it faced sanctions from the EU and the US. In 2022 it became the most sanctioned country in the world[17], overcoming the previous leader, Iran. It has become almost as isolated as North Korea, and the Council of Europe became the only organisation that managed to suspend Russia’s membership as it was not upholding its principles.
Has this helped Ukraine to liberate the occupied territories or make the Russian army leave Ukraine? Not that we are aware of. What definitely helped Ukraine to perform important and great military operations was ammunition, tanks, fighter jets and a professional army. This is the power that stops an enemy at the border and protects democratic values.
We are entering (or have already entered) the phase of wars and conflicts. Whether we like it or not, the geopolitical system we are used to is falling apart. A complete reconstruction is needed as soon as possible. World War III will not be the same as the previous two, it is likely to be decentralised with numerous hot spots around the globe that would be connected between each other.
HAMAS’ unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, has already been named the biggest failure in the history of Israeli Mossad. HAMAS has a long-lasting history of relations with Iran[18] and Russia[19] and this proves the following. Even though the Russia-Ukraine war and the Arab-Israeli conflict are of a totally different nature, today they are both connected by the involvement of the authoritarian regimes that are seeking to destabilise the existent geopolitical order.
Militarisation of the democracies should be smart, the democratic states should think outside the box to be able to protect themselves and remain in their positions in the changing geopolitical world. Just as the British came up with the idea of a tank during The First World War,[20] which drastically changed the course of the war.
After the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia against Ukraine, the NATO allies realised that it was not only compromise and negotiations but tanks and missiles that were necessary for their countries’ well-being. The states that are closer to the border with Russia and Belarus are among those who are most actively pushing the alliance for higher defence spending.[21] It is the irony of fate but Russia’s intentions to destroy democracy in Europe and not having NATO at its borders ended up making the European continent more militarised and united than ever before.
Dictators perceive seeking compromise and negotiations as a weakness. Power is the only thing they can understand. Therefore, modern democracies have to invest in the armies and military sector and not be fooled by the countries that want us to believe that they are capable of changing without any evidence of it.
Multilateralism and Democracy
A number of recently announced members of the United Nations Human Rights Council[22] are surely based on a geographical basis and are elected by secret ballot, yet they are known for having big problems with upholding human rights within their countries. The General Assembly adopts a resolution on upholding humanitarian obligations in Palestine[23], yet has zero mentions of HAMAS that caused the recent escalation. And the work of the UN Security Council is being paralysed because of the aggressor state that illegally holds the permanent member seat.[24] All the mentioned examples sound surreal but this is one of the products of multilateralism of the past.
The diplomatic clichés of ‘being concerned’ and ‘condemning unlawful actions’ have become the causes of memes and jokes. Organisations such as the UN are considered to only exist to express their concerns and condemn something bad. In fact, international organisations have become so bureaucratic that they forget the main idea of why they were founded.
The paralysis of the UN gives a sense of déjà vu about its predecessor the League of Nations. The initial idea of creating an international organisation which would ensure long-lasting peace through communication and dialogue seems to be perfect. However, the lack of mechanisms and subjectivity causes its failure. The environment of mutual cooperation and understanding has led to false attempts to try to understand the reasoning behind aggression instead of finding ways to punish and prevent it in the future. It is time to recognise the mistakes of the past and to right the wrongs until it’s too late.
There is nothing more sustainable than constant change. Just as the Russian Federation as a permanent member of the UN Security Council highlights the drawbacks of the system, countries like Hungary show where the European Union should be reformed. One state cannot hold hostage the whole organisation and one man cannot hold hostage 700 million people. Therefore, Hungary’s warm ties with Russia and Belarus despite the position of the EU make it clearer for the European community on where and how it should be reformed. It is impossible to hold on to the old geopolitical order, it is time to work on the new one.
The world is not only entering a phase of conflicts and war, but it is additionally on the verge of a new ideological confrontation. The non-democratic regimes are also capable of building strong and resilient economies and military potentials. The best approach to handling the COVID situation is yet to be determined, but the studies show that both democracies and autocracies were capable of efficient responding to COVID with modern technologies.[25] ‘Spreading democracy’ does not work anymore and, in fact, it never really worked. To avoid democracy’s decline, we should communicate and find common ground with the countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America by developing strategies that take into account the specific features of the countries and regions. The same recommendation applies not only to the distant states and the other continents but also to the Balkans, Eastern Europe and others. There is no universal strategy but there is the power of multilateralism in diversity.
Not all countries seek democracy, it’s a fact. The world is much bigger and more diverse than the EU, the United States and other democratic states, it’s another fact. Economy is certainly an important sphere of our lives which allows governments to make their people’s lives easier and ensure the well-being of the country. It is important to have something in common to be able to trade and develop each other’s economies as the world is too interconnected to return to isolationism.
However, it is also important to bear in mind the consequences of such actions. Staying ignorant of the state’s behaviour in the international arena while using the economy as an excuse diminishes the effect of the mechanisms that are created for deterrence. Imposing sanctions, isolating the states and using other tools to influence the behaviour of states that breached their promises to the world – this is the way they would understand that democracy is not going to tolerate anything that threatens it.
At the same time, the nations which strive to develop democratic values and principles should be supported. This should be a consistent policy of the democracies around the world. It should be done not only through capacity-building projects but it should be a strong political will to do so. This is the only way to win the hearts and minds of those who are still hesitant or under the influence of propaganda.
Conclusion
So how does democracy navigate change? It adapts, it’s trying to address the challenges and issues but it mostly reacts instead of being proactive. Yes, it is going through major changes, but it has been doing so since its first appearance in history. Today’s democracy is again threatened by authoritarian tendencies, the world is becoming more and more fragmented and seems to be like in Hobbes’ “world of all against all.” Democracy is never easy. It is always about discussions and arguments, issues and challenges. It is constantly looking for compromise and consensus, and it never has a correct answer immediately. But instead of focusing on their differences, the democratic states should focus on the ideas that unite them.
Democracy does not have the majority in the world. A handful of countries that are considered full democracies only, while the other countries are swinging between democratic aspirations and the authoritarian past. However, the universal principles and values are the ones that have always united many people in the world. Once these ideas are backed with power, both economic and military, more people would perceive them as valuable and worthy. The world has to agree to the new game rules as the old ones are already outdated and do not work anymore. Therefore, investment in institutions, military power and multilateralism are the three aspects that would ease democracy’s navigation in these turbulent times.
About the Author
Maryna Karlevits is a foreign policy advisor to Ukraine’s MP Oleksii Goncharenko, an expert in political science and international relations, and an interpreter. She previously worked with the MFA of Ukraine on international education for diplomats and civil servants. Her areas of expertise previously lay in international security, specifically nuclear non-proliferation as a part of Russian and Chinese foreign policy. Currently, she is focused on comparative politics and democratisation issues. She has also translated a book “Travelbook. Independent” into English.
References
[1] End of History is largely popular book written by Francis Fukuyama, where he states that with the end of the Cold War, the liberal democracy of the Western example is the most universal system which makes the future ideological wars impossible.
[2] By mentioning the “first-speed state”, the author means the concept of multi-speed Europe which was widely discussed in the past decades, which points out that some EU member states develop faster than others, hence, some EU member states enjoy more benefits than create such benefits for the others. M. de La Baume, Multispeech Europe: the EU’s ‘Lock Ness Monster’, POLITICO, March 2017 [politico.eu access: 14 October, 2023]
[3] C.Mortimer, If you saw these tweets, you were targeted by Russian Brexit propaganda, The Independent, September, 2017 [independent.co.uk access: 14 October, 2023]
[4] D. Ruy, Did Russia Influence Brexit? Center for Strategic and International Studies, July, 2020 [csis.org access 14 October, 2023]
[5] C. Watson, The Key Moments from Mark Zuckerberg’s testimony to Congress, The Guardian, April, 2018 [theguardian.com access 29 October 2023]
[6] K. Paul, J. Bhutan, Key Takeaways from TikTok hearing in Congress – and the uncertain road ahead, The Guardian, March 2023 [theguardian.com access 29 October 2023]
[7] Pegasus and similar spyware and secret state surveillance. PACE resolution 2513, [pace.coe.int access October 31]
[8] B.Fung, Lawmakers say TikTok is a national security threat, but evidence remains unclear, CNN Business, March, 2023 [edition.cnn.com access 14 October 2023]
[9] S. Shuster. ‘Nobody Believes in Our Victory Like I Do.’ Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight, TIME, October 2023 [time.com, access 30 October 2023]
[10] https://world.time.com/author/simonshuster/
[11] Statement on Proposed List of Priority Reforms, U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, September 2023 [ua.usembassy.gov access October 31, 2023]
[12] A. Marr, Zelensky Doesn’t Know the End of His Story. Churchill Didn’t Either, The New York Times, March 2022 [nytimes.com access 28 October 2023]
[13] Latvian Foreign Minister calls for support to Ukraine, continued dialogue on current issues, PACE News, October, 2023 [pace.coe.int access 14 October 2023]
[14] V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Democracy Report 2022: Autocratization Changing Nature? [v-dem.net access 14 October 2023], p.6
[15] Russia’s actions were ‘condemned’ by the UK, the US and the EU, however, there were serious steps lacking that would make Russia face the proper consequences of its actions.
[16] B. Smith, U.S. pondered military use in Georgia, POLITICO, March 2010 [politico.com access 14 October 2023]
[17] F. Zandt, The World's Most-Sanctioned Countries, Statista, February 2023 [statista.com access 14 October 2023]
[18] H. Esfandiari. HAMAS And Israel: Iran’s Role, Wilson Center, October 2023 [wilsoncenter.org access 31 October 2023]
[19] Press release on Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s meeting with Head of HAMAS Politburo Khaled Meshaal, MFA of Russia, August 2015 [mid.ru access 31 October 2023]
[20] How Britain Invented the Tank In The First World War [iwm.org.uk access 31 October 2023]
[21] A. von Nahmen, More NATO Members Pushing For Higher Defence Spending, Deutsche Welle, January 2023 [dw.com access 31 October 2023]
[22] General Assembly Elects 15 Members to Human Rights Council, United Nations Meetings Coverage and Press Release [press.un.org access 31 October 2023]
[23] General Assembly Adopts Resolution Calling for Immediate, Sustained Humanitarian Truce Leading to Cessation of Hostilities between Israel, Hamas, United Nations Meetings Coverage and Press Release [press.un.org access 31 October 2023]
[24] S. Sydorenko, Russia Has Illegally Gained UN Security Council Seat. It Should Be Fixed, European Pravda, February 2022 [eurointegration.com.ua access 31 October 2023]
[25] For instance, Time names Taiwan and Singapore as the countries with the best COVID response, when they used aggressive and immediate response using modern technologies. https://time.com/5851633/best-global-responses-covid-19/
