A Turkish Take on Realism: Straddling the Divide Between Transactionalism and Regionalism

Introduction

In May 2023, Turkish president Erdoğan delivered a keynote speech to the Court of Accounts, promising a “great entrance into the Century of Türkiye.” This references the “bridge” between the Turkish past and future, fostered by the modern nation’s centennial. Recently, Türkiye’s growing influence has raised questions about internal motivations, with many suggesting the nation’s foreign policy under Erdoğan may be increasingly driven by self-interest, particularly in terms of economic enrichment and maintaining domestic power.  Accordingly, this necessitates analysis to understand whether Turkey’s actions are shaping a future rooted in genuine national interest or merely consolidating power for its current leadership.

Why It Matters

In a recent IPD discussion with the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy discussing Türkiye’s evolving role as a middle power, experts from various fields came together to dissect the web of dynamics shaping the nation’s foreign policy.  Türkiye, often seen as a pivotal player at the intersection of continents, is increasingly asserting itself as a regional power while straddling its traditional alliances and emerging ambitions.

Türkiye, often seen as a pivotal player at the intersection of continents, is increasingly asserting itself as a regional power while straddling its traditional alliances and emerging ambitions.

When considering the nation’s impact on the international order, the reality is that Türkiye’s actions are closely monitored by various global actors, intrigued by how the country will navigate its middle power status in a multipolar world. Türkiye’s strategic decisions not only influence its immediate region, but also ripple more widely based on its standing in NATO and its influence in its immediate periphery regions. In turn, Türkiye’s actions directly affect geopolitical dynamics both in the Middle East and Europe, making it an important stakeholder considering ongoing conflicts both in Gaza and Ukraine.

Historical Context

Historically, the Turkish Republic inherits its security culture from the Ottoman Empire – predicated on maintaining territorial integrity. Turkish states, both past and modern, have leveraged alliances and geopolitical positioning as the bridge between Europe and Asia. It is, for example, one of the key reasons why Türkiye mostly abstained from hostilities for the majority of the Second World War, subsequently joining NATO in 1952.

Following its defeat in 1918, Allied victors divided the Ottoman Empire and imposed occupation on portions of Anatolia. This ended Turkish foreign policy under Ottoman rule, with the state not reasserting its regional position until its modern founding in 1923. As a result of the occupation and subjugation of Turks during this period, founding father Mustafa Kemal Atatürk underlined the need for “Peace at home, peace in the world” in April 1931. This, coupled with the Kemalist ideal of “sovereignty belonging to the nation unrestrictedly and unconditionally,” became a foundational principle integrated into the future policies of the Turkish Republic.

Contemporarily, Türkiye has relatively maintained this defensive approach. As foreign minister from 2009 to 2014, Ahmet Davutoğlu posited a policy of “zero problems with neighbours”, underlining democracy as the greatest foreign policy asset and source of soft power for the state regionally. Remarkably, this has been despite several internal occurrences of military coups and the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the latter seeing a deterioration of relations with the United States following Turkish refusal to provide a second front, but aligning with the defensive approach prioritizing national security over regional adventures.

National Interest and Geography

Geographically, Türkiye remains inarguably important for European security, specifically for NATO as it provides crucial access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus Strait and strategic surveillance capacity of the greater region. Accordingly, Türkiye’s geographical position plays a crucial role in shaping its foreign policy. However, its location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia also means it is often caught between competing regional powers, leading to a sense of encirclement. This geopolitical reality, coupled with the historical context, therefore necessitates a transactional and realist foreign policy, allowing Türkiye to pivot quickly in response to changing dynamics.

Türkiye remains inarguably important for European security, specifically for NATO as it provides crucial access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus Strait and strategic surveillance capacity of the greater region.

The principle of national interest, deeply rooted in Kemalism, continues to shape Turkey’s foreign policy. While this approach may not always be popular with other nations, it remains a fundamental aspect of Türkiye’s international strategy. This transactionalism in foreign policy—where relationships and alliances are often pragmatic and temporary—traces back to Türkiye’s aforementioned historical experiences. It has only been reinforced by events such as the Cyprus arms embargo and lack of international support in the Syrian conflict, further entrenching a foreign policy prioritizing national sovereignty and strategic flexibility.

Regionalism Revisited

Notably, the 2016 attempted coup in Türkiye saw Erdoğan consolidate power domestically to preserve the balance of power, while also growing suspicious of outside support of potential coup sponsors. In considering the growing involvement of Russia in Syria coupled with American withdrawal in the Middle East, these changing dynamics of the regional security orders further shaped the realist approach Türkiye has adopted, including in the execution of military operations in the Northern regions of Syria and Iraq. As such, Türkiye has moved towards establishing a sphere of influence as a regional power to guarantee its security.

However, despite its attempts to portray itself as an independent regional power, Turkey remains deeply intertwined with NATO and economically connected to the European Union. This duality is a hallmark of Türkiye’s foreign policy, reflecting a long history of navigating complex international relationships. During the recent IPD panel discussion, Dr. Kilford drew parallels between Erdogan’s strategies and those of İsmet İnönü, who skillfully balanced the demands of both Russia and Britain during a critical period in Turkish history. Erdogan’s current foreign policy approach similarly reflects a need to navigate between competing powers while maintaining Türkiye’s national interests.

Looking Ahead

Undoubtedly, the future of Türkiye’s foreign policy remains closely tied to the leadership of President Erdoğan. As the opposition remains fragmented, Erdoğan’s grip on power appears secure at least until 2028, meaning that international actors will need to engage with his administration’s policies. To this effect, all experts in the IPD discussion emphasized the importance of accepting this reality and finding ways to work with Erdoğan’s government.

Undoubtedly, the future of Türkiye’s foreign policy remains closely tied to the leadership of President Erdoğan.

Although frustrating, Türkiye’s transactional approach can lead to diplomacy where it otherwise may not have existed, one example being its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Despite the tensions and competing interests involved, Türkiye managed to play a central role in facilitating grain exports from Ukraine through the Black Sea, working with adversaries of Russia and the EU to enable the initiative. This not only highlights Türkiye’s ability to mediate in critical regional issues, but has underscored its broader strategy of balancing relationships with both Western and Eastern powers.

Conclusion

Türkiye’s position as a pivotal player in global politics is rooted in its unique geographical location, historical experiences, and the pragmatic, often transactional approach of its foreign policy. As Peter Zeihan underlines “the Turks went from being empowered by geography to imprisoned by it”. Yet, in this renewed era of hard power, Türkiye holds the opportunity to forge a new balance of power, this time as a rational link between East and West

As the nation looks to the future under President Erdoğan’s leadership, it continues to navigate the complexities of its role as a middle power in a multipolar world. Turkey’s ability to straddle alliances, maintain regional influence, and engage in diplomacy, even under challenging circumstances, underscores its importance on the international stage. It remains to be seen how Türkiye will manage this balancing act – either succeeding in establishing regional hegemony, or alienating itself among Western NATO allies and exacerbating its security dilemma vis-a-vis competing powers in its immediate region. As global dynamics shift, Turkey’s actions and strategies will remain under close scrutiny, with the potential to shape not only its own future but also the broader geopolitical landscape.