The Climate and Security Centre of Excellence: Canada's Opportunity for Climate Security Leadership

“Climate Change is one of the defining challenges of our time, with global impacts affecting all countries. A Canada-hosted COE on Climate and Security would respond to an identified Alliance priority to better understand, adapt to, and mitigate the security implications of climate change. This COE would also facilitate the exchange of expertise among Allies, build capacity to address the security implications of climate change, and help advance our ongoing efforts to reduce the climate impact of our military activities.” [i]

— The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada

By Hannah Christensen and Alexander Landry

INTRODUCTION

As NATO now faces rising tensions in Eastern Europe with familiar foes following an invasion of a partner nation, the Alliance finds itself once again in a position of leadership towards reinforcing cooperative security in the modern age. This being said, above and beyond the current crisis, further potential areas of concern loom with deep implications for more than just the Alliance itself. Accordingly, with NATO and its member nations impacted by these issues, the Alliance will once again be looked to as one of the world’s leaders moving forward. One of these issues is that of climate change. With climate change emerging as a threat multiplier concerning many current and potential future conflicts around the world, the need for climate action only deepens leading into the new year.

The year 2022 will see new initiatives toward climate leadership from NATO in the form of the first Climate Change and Security Progress Report, to be presented at this year’s Madrid Summit as one indication of progress on the 2021 NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan.[1] To this effect, the Alliance is clear in its approach to the overall issue of climate change moving forward. NATO’s steps forward include increased overall awareness, climate change adaptation and mitigation, and enhanced outreach with partner nations and organizations.[2]

As a member nation, Canada has internally dealt with the effects of climate change in the form of floods, famine, and fires for the past decade, repeatedly seeing its military committed to disaster relief efforts as a result. This has only strengthened Canada’s resolve in the face of climate change, with a renewed commitment to the issue leading to the promise of establishing the NATO Climate Action and Security Centre of Excellence in Canada by 2023.

Accordingly, as climate change continues to deepen threats to the NATO domain, such as energy security, future migration problems, and heightened need for disaster response, this article explores how climate change within the NATO alliance and how Canada specifically can assume a leadership role on climate action within NATO.

BACKGROUND

It is now widely understood that climate change is a global security threat, the impacts of which have grown exponentially over the past few decades. This being said, questions of sustainable development and climate change mitigation may not immediately appear to overlap greatly with discussions of defense and national security.[3] Early discussions may in fact only address how to lessen our militaries’ impact on the changing climate, which admittedly is a large and imperfectly understood problem. The fact is that the defense sector is a massive contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, though the exact data on emissions is often not well recorded.[4] However, what is certainly understood is that robust and resilient communities, economies, and militaries are the underpinnings of a nation’s strength and security. The symbiosis therefore to be analyzed must center on how Allies’ militaries are impacting the climate and, consequently, how the climate will impact our nations in return. NATO nations will need to adapt not only to create ‘green’ militaries whose own impact on the changing climate is lessened, but also resilient militaries that are prepared and equipped to address climate security issues.

Although NATO was originally conceived to protect Allies from external threats in a cooperative security basis, the organization must now pivot to addressing a faceless enemy that has been exacerbated by domestic processes but is nonetheless a threat to the security of the Alliance. It is therefore necessary for not only Allied nations but also NATO itself to address the impacts of climate change for the organization to fulfill its core tasks of collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security.[5] To this effect, NATO, within the scope of the Alliance, began officially addressing the issue of climate change in 2010, when the threat was first mentioned in its Strategic Concept. Subsequently, the Alliance also established the Emerging Security Challenges Division (ESCD) to address a wide range of non-traditional threats,[6] such as dependency on globalized supply chains, cyber threats, and extreme weather conditions.[7] Since then, climate change has featured in NATO Summit declarations and been addressed through the Green Defence Framework and the Climate Change and Security Action Plan.[8] Moreover, even the new NATO HQ building in Brussels was designed to be an environmentally conscious building, with reduced energy consumption, cleaner energy sources such as geothermal heating and cooling systems, and a rainwater collection and storage system to supply water for bathrooms, cleaning, and landscaping.[9]

However, above and beyond the Alliance itself, climate change has also sparked discussions in Canadian and other NATO member nations regarding concerns at both the strategic and political levels. For example, as a result of melting polar ice caps, the Arctic has gained importance as a security space among NATO members and non-member nations, such as Russia and the People’s Republic of China, alike. In Canada, the increasing navigability of the Northwest Passage has become a brand-new geopolitical opportunity as well as vulnerability.[10] Climate change has already dramatically altered and increased the conditions and locations in which militaries must operate. This serves as but one example of the gravity of the problem, but by no means does it wholly encapsulate it.

As a threat multiplier, climate change endangers the resiliency of our communities, economies, and militaries through its impacts on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, resource depletion, depreciation and deployment of human resources, geopolitical stability, and migration.[11] To highlight the magnitude of those affected, as of 2021, an average of 20 million people per year have been displaced due to extreme weather events, which have only been exacerbated by climate change.[12] To this effect, these consequences impact NATO member nations in disparate ways. In Canada specifically, recent years have seen a massive increase not only in the number of extreme weather events, but also the number of domestic military actions to combat them.[13] In 2021, the Canadian Armed Forces’ Operation LENTUS responded to seven natural disaster events, particularly in provinces like British Columbia, where populations faced extreme heat and cold, droughts, floods, and forest fires, problems that seem to have become annual occurrences throughout the nation.[14] With a national armed forces already struggling with  its greater commitments both at home and abroad during a crisis of culture and retention issues, the underlying events leading to required domestic responses only further aggravates the factors that are straining Canada’s military at the moment.

THE CLIMATE AND SECURITY CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE

Enter the Climate and Security Centre of Excellence (CASCOE). Stemming from the 2021 Brussels Summit, within the scope of his Strengthening Transatlantic Defence and Security speech, the Canadian Prime Minister underlined climate change as a “defining challenge of our time, with global impacts affecting all countries.”[15] This certainly rings true at home in Canada with the constant threat of natural disasters from coast to coast. Accordingly, in conjunction with the NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, Canada reconfirmed its commitment to establishing the CASCOE, preparing the institution to “respond to an identified Alliance priority to better understand, adapt to, and mitigate the security implications of climate change.”[16]

Subsequent to the summit, the Government of Canada reinforced the importance of the upcoming institution, directing in its mandate letters to the Ministers of National Defence and Foreign Affairs alike that they are to “work with NATO partners to establish a new NATO Centre of Excellence on Climate and Security based in Canada to ensure Canada and its allies are prepared to respond to climate-related threats and emergencies.”[17] Understanding that these mandate letters essentially serve as national tasking lists with coordinating instructions, it is now clear that the institution will be a national joint venture at its base between the Department of National Defence and Global Affairs Canada, the two leading organizations in Canadian foreign policy and overall security. With 28 current NATO Centres of Excellence bearing accreditation, CASCOE representatives will now work with stakeholders and Allied Command Transformation within the accreditation process. It also has yet to designate a physical location for the COE, but one can assume that proximity to an international airport and the nation’s capital will play a large part as factors in the decision-making process. 

It was therefore along these lines that in January 2022, the Atlantic Forum and the Canadian NATO Field School held a forum-based discussion regarding the CASCOE proposal. Joined by the CASCOE Interim Director, Blair Brimmell, and other NATO officials, the Canadian DND reinforced their commitment to establishing a framework aligned with other member nations,      and Allied Command Transformation representatives provided the outline for the COE accreditation process for participants, reaffirming the focus on the nexus of the CASCOE. 

As a review, specifically of the NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan’s objectives, the Alliance’s goals are to increase Allied awareness, adapt to climate change, contribute to the mitigation of climate change, enhance outreach, and track progress.[18] To achieve this final aim, the first Climate Change and Security Progress Report will be delivered at the 2022 NATO Summit in Madrid, where the Alliance’s next Strategic Concept is also expected to be an important topic of conversation. CASCOE will likely assume a leadership role within this basis, playing a large part in the path forward for future execution of the Climate and Security Action Plan.

THE WAY FORWARD

Within the flow of logic established both by the NATO Climate and Security Action Plan, as well as the emphasis the CASCOE will inherently have on the key tenets within the plan itself, the way forward for the CASCOE and NATO reposes heavily on the concepts of awareness, adaptation, and mitigation. These tenets can therefore be used as the underlining basis for the proposed strategies in imposing the CASCOE as the foundational institution for climate security moving forward.

1. Awareness – Promotion of the CASCOE throughout the Alliance

Firstly, the overall effectiveness of the CASCOE will rest on its ability to seamlessly integrate into the NATO alliance and work with the NATO Command Structure, albeit outside of it as an entity of itself. Understanding that one of the key roles the COE will hold is the facilitation of exchange of expertise among Allies, it will be through this integration that the COE will be able to build capacity to address the security implications of climate change while continuing to advance      ongoing efforts to reduce the climate impact of military activities.

Participation with the COE will need to be both internal and external to the Alliance when considering member nations. Internally, CASCOE should seek to leverage already existing entities such as the NATO HQ’s Emerging Securities Division and Military Committee’s Joint Standardization Board’s Environmental Protection Working Group. These will likely provide foundational research that the COE can then specifically expand upon, while also aiding in understanding the NATO alliance. External to the Alliance in particular, American participation will be critical, particularly understanding that the Pentagon is the world’s largest energy consumer, investing billions to reduce its carbon footprint and in preparing facilities against the effects of climate change.[19] It is with these partners in the fold that the CASCOE can move towards shaping the problem.

2. Adaptation – Preparing military forces to address climate security issues

With awareness heightened, adaptation will need to begin quickly across military forces within the NATO Command Structure, as well as supporting organizations such as the NCIA and the NSPA. This will need to include the revision of the current ecological footprints of the organization, and potential implementation of environmental management systems, something NSPA has already begun on smaller scales within its greater organization, which one of the authors has previously identified in Atlantic Forum publications.[20]

Taking the example directly from the Canadian Armed Forces, strategic and operational considerations come into play for how forces in areas of operations will be affected by climate change as well as how they can react to it, be it within the scope of domestic or expeditionary operations. These include tailored military responses, aid to civil powers, and integration into public service emergency management organizations.[21] As climate change weather-related events only worsen in some areas of the world specifically, member nations may find themselves in positions unable to internally manage emergency situations. Consequently, NATO members may be called upon within the framework of the Alliance to assist with their Allies.

Further, an important note to make is regarding the effects climate change has on specific populations. To this effect, the Canadian prime minister underlined the importance of collaboration across all sectors, including consideration for “diverse perspectives, such as those of women and girls, Indigenous peoples, as well as marginalized, and vulnerable populations.”[22] This will be of critical importance moving forward as continued climate-related weather events exacerbate conditions for already desperate people emerging from a global pandemic and impacted world economy. 

3. Mitigation – Finding sustainable solutions to the underlying problems of climate change

Following adaptation, to subsequently mitigate climate security issues, the Alliance through the CASCOE will need to identify the underlying problems of climate change, as well as its secondary and tertiary consequences. Only by understanding the full web of interconnectivity that constitutes the issue itself can the institution then make recommendations on concrete actions that the Alliance and its member nations can take. Taking an example from the Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Vilnius, Lithuania—what will likely be an important partner for the CASCOE—the establishment of academic research departments intertwined with military experts from NATO member nations and partner nations will help to form solutions towards the overall mitigation of the impacts of climate change. Moreover, participation in exercises such as the Coherent Resilience series on energy security, or even instituting climate security-based exercises, will see these solutions put to the test by entities within the Bi-Strategic Commands.

Finally, as reaffirmed in previous Atlantica publications, NATO must continue to recognize that specific events such as health or environmental emergencies can aggravate security crises. As NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană notes, “Resilient societies are our first line of defense. We have to put a much greater emphasis on resilience across government, the private sector, and civil society.”[23] The Alliance must therefore continue to seek to understand the relationship between resilience and climate change mitigation, further defining the security picture as impacted by climate change overall. Through establishing capable, resilient societal structures within NATO, more leeway is thereby provided to continue searching for sustainable, permanent solutions to the issues posed by climate security.

CONCLUSION

It is now evident that NATO is addressing climate change in many ways. However, the Alliance also understands the evolving nature of the issue and, therefore, finds itself also seeking new ways—e.g., the upcoming Climate Change and Security Progress Report—to tackle this cascading issue. Accordingly, as detailed above, with the upcoming establishment of the Climate and Security Centre of Excellence, Canada looks poised to assume a leadership role in combatting climate change within the Alliance, all while relying upon its own previous, inherent knowledge from dealing with domestic climate-related events.

Moving forward, it is vital that both individual member nations and the Alliance itself leverage forces and infrastructure that are not only sustainable but also resilient to the impact of extreme weather events and equipped to handle the natural and humanitarian disasters caused, multiplied, or shaped by climate change. Despite the rising tensions in Eastern Europe along familiar fault lines, climate change will unquestionably be a major topic of interest at the upcoming Madrid Summit, particularly with the impending departure of the current secretary general, a former minister of the environment himself.

Thus, through its future establishment of the CASCOE, Canada can champion climate security efforts moving forward within NATO, ensuring an effective application of military forces within the scope of climate security. To this effect, the Climate and Security Action Plan will continue to be supported and executed, ideally with the CASCOE as a leading institution, towards implementation of the tenets of awareness, adaptation, and mitigation—all foundational to enhancing cooperative security in future.  

Notes
[1] North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan”, 14 June 2021, accessed 10 February 2022, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_185174.htm.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Sherri Goodman and Katarina Kertysova, “NATO: An unexpected driver of climate action?”, NATO Review, 2022: n.p., accessed 15 February 2022,  https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/02/01/nato-an-unexpected-driver-of-climate-action/index.html.

[4] Simon Dalby, “Canada Can Lead on Climate at NATO – but We Must Move Quickly”, Centre for International Governance Innovation”, (2021), n.p, accessed 15 February 2022, https://www.cigionline.org/articles/canada-can-lead-on-climate-at-nato-but-we-must-move-quickly/ .

[5] NATO, “NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan”.

[6] NATO, “Emerging Security Challenges Division”, 4 May 2010, accessed 13 February 2022, https://esc.hq.nato.int/default.aspx.

[7] Jamie Shea, “How is NATO Dealing with Emerging Security Challenges?”, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 14, no. 2 (2013): 193-201.

[8] Ibid.

[9] NATO, “New NATO Headquarters Factsheet”, May 2018, accessed 13 February 2022, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2018_05/20180507_1805-factsheet-nnhq-en.pdf.pdf.

[10] John Conger, “Assessing Canada’s Climate Change Response & Challenges to Military Readiness – An Interview with John Conger”, Canadian Defence Associations Institute, (2021), accessed 13 February 2022,  https://cdainstitute.ca/john-conger-assessing-canadas-climate-change-response-challenges-to-military-readiness/.

[11] Catharine Tunney, “A cold war in a hotter world: Canada’s intelligence sector confronts climate change”, CBC, (2021), n.p, accessed 15 February 2022 https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-climate-change-intelligence-refugees-flooding-1.6284133

[12]  “NATO and climate change: How big is the problem?”, BBC, 15 June 2021, accessed 13 February 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-57476349.

[13] Catherine Tunney, “A cold war in a hotter world”.

[14] National Defence, “Operation LENTUS”, Government of Canada, 11 January 2022, accessed 13 February 2022,  https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-lentus.html.

[15] Office of the Prime Minister, “Strengthening Transatlantic Defence and Security”

[16] Ibid.

[17] Office of the Prime Minister, “Minister of National Defence Mandate Letter”, Government of Canada, 16 December 2021, accessed 15 February 2021, https://pm.gc.ca/en/mandate-letters/2021/12/16/minister-national-defence-mandate-letter#:~:text=As%20Ministers%2C%20each%20of%20us,Peoples%20to%20advance%20their%20rights..

[18] NATO, “NATO Climate Change and Security Action Plan”.

[19] Colin Robertson, “NATO Climate and Security Center”, The Globe and Mail, 16 November 2021, accessed 15 February 2022, https://www.colinrobertson.ca/?p=2775.

[20] Alexander Landry, “NATO Support and Procurement Agency: Best Practices for Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency for the Defence Industry”, Atlantica, 01 February 2022, accessed 15 February 2022, https://atlantic-forum.com/content/nato-support-and-procurement-agency-best-practices-environmental-protection-and-energy.

[21] Alexander Fremis, Operation LENTUS ad You: An Emergency Manager’s Guide to the CAF”, Canadian Journal of Emergency Management, 2021, accessed 15 February 2022, https://cdnjem.ca/v1n2i/lentus/.

[22] Office of the Prime Minister, “Strengthening Transatlantic Defence and Security”.

[23] Jaclyn Levy, “The best defense: Why NATO should invest in resilience”, Atlantic Council, 10 June 2021, accessed 19 February 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-best-defense-why-nato-should-invest-in-resilience/.

[i] Office of the Prime Minister, “Strengthening Transatlantic Defence and Security”, 14 Jun 2021, accessed 14 February 2022, https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/backgrounders/2021/06/14/strengthening-transatlantic-defence-and-security.

 This publication was co-sponsored by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.