Redefining Security: How to Reshape the Power Dynamics in the Black Sea?
By Maryna Karlevits
The Black Sea — A Geopolitical Hotspot
Despite its significance as a site of international trade not only for the countries of the region but also around the globe, the importance of the Black Sea has always been underestimated both geographically and geopolitically. From a geographical point of view, the region is located at the crossroads between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. It is also situated in the middle of several energy routes and has rich flora and fauna.
The security configuration in the region has dramatically transformed since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, followed by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. Continuous ignorance of international law and a lack of decisiveness from the international community allowed Russia to impose the first maritime blockade in the Black Sea in the 21st century. The blockade exacerbated the global food crisis, as well as several economic and security issues.
The security situation in the Black Sea region has also worsened the economic situation in Europe, as all types of shipments were suspended due to the blockade, and Ukraine became even more dependent on foreign aid than it had been before. The problem of sea mines has also reduced the flow of tourism to the Black Sea coast, which was one of the main sources of income for cities like Odesa—not to mention the impact of the war on the ecological landscape of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, which is being destroyed due to the war.
It is important to bear in mind that Russia is not going to give up on the Black Sea, nor it is going to give up on conquering Ukraine and potentially moving into NATO territory. Therefore, there must be a clear strategy in place that NATO and Ukraine are moving toward. Clear steps should be made to ensure Russia’s defeat not only on the Black Sea but on all fronts. This article argues that Ukraine is the key to Russia’s defeat and why NATO should not fear further engagement with Kyiv but rather pursue it.
Current State of Play
Russia never lies about its geopolitical plans — it always announces them openly and proudly. Their top officials and propagandists openly declare that Ukrainian cities should be erased from the face of the Earth, and later they proceed with such a strategy.[i] They frequently discuss destroying Ukrainian critical civil infrastructure and conquering Ukrainian cities while destroying Ukrainians. There is evidence to believe that if Moscow succeeds, Russia would proceed with invading NATO states: we should learn from the past that appeasement always leads to expanding the conflict, not solving it.
As the world’s breadbasket and one of the top agricultural suppliers in the world, Ukraine was unable to export anything through the Black Sea at the beginning of the war due to constant threats of being attacked by the Russian Black Sea fleet. Initially, the European Commission worked out several ways of transporting Ukrainian grain and agriculture via solidarity lanes[ii]; however, the levels of grain passing through these lanes were not comparable to the amount of exports Ukraine was shipping before 2022. Having exported about 4 million tonnes of grain worldwide in 2021, Ukraine hardly managed to export 9,000 tonnes in April 2022.[iii]
In July 2022, Türkiye, together with the United Nations, initiated the Black Sea Grain Initiative in which several agreements were signed separately with Ukraine and Russia to remove the blockade of Ukrainian ports.[iv] However, the willingness of the Russian Federation to sign these agreements did not make the initiative efficient enough. It was reported several times that Russia purposefully sabotaged the process of checking ships.[v] In July 2023, Russia decided to leave the initiative, and within two days, it began continuous missile attacks on Ukrainian ports in the city of Odesa.[vi]
Following the end of the grain deal, the only way to ensure the smooth and constant work of its ports was to break the blockade by military means. As a country with practically no fleet, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been taking baby steps to destroy Russia’s military ships one by one. This has been accomplished through successful and creative uses of unmanned marine drones, which are hard and expensive to intercept via traditional air defence and missiles.[vii] As a result, Russia’s fleet has been forcibly relocated to other ports that are much farther from the border with Ukraine. This has allowed Kyiv to renew shipments from Ukrainian ports and to end Russia’s naval supremacy in the Black Sea.
The only language Russia understands is power: Ukraine has had to learn it the hard way. In March 2024 alone, Russia attacked Ukraine with 263 missiles of various types, including ballistic and hypersonic ones, and 515 drones of various types, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.[viii] Russia has killed civilians and destroyed residential buildings, port infrastructure, and energy hubs, which is part of its strategy to destroy the Ukrainian energy system. Missile attacks on Ukraine not only have crippled Ukrainian energy exports to the EU but also forced Ukraine to import more energy sources to maintain normal life inside the country.[ix] Additionally, the amount of grain being exported from Ukraine after its success on the Black Sea is still far from pre-invasion levels, which directly contributes to the worsening global food security situation.
While devastating for Ukraine, such attacks also have direct effects on neighbouring NATO member states as Russian missiles from time to time fly over Polish air space. At the same time, war fatigue and the elections in several NATO member states are affecting weapons and ammunition supplies to Ukraine. Focused on their electoral campaigns, Western allies seem to fail to understand that it might be their last political campaign in a peaceful Europe and United States. More and more, NATO allies are discussing the possibility of Russia launching a war against NATO in the next five to ten or even 20 years.[x]
Therefore, the question is: what will be discussed at the upcoming NATO Summit—Ukraine’s victory that leads to the long-lasting peace on the continent or the allies’ preparation for World War III? This year’s Munich Security Conference in February 2024 was a reality check for many European states on the geopolitical priorities of the United States. While many European leaders shared their doubts and pessimism on NATO’s capability to protect them from Russia,[xi] the United States has made clear through its U.S. National Threat Assessment[xii] that it foresees greater danger from China rather than from Russia. This calls into question the United States’ commitment to supplying aid to Ukraine as the war continues in future.
The Key to Russia’s Defeat is in the Black Sea
There is no evidence that Russia is going to give up on its attempts to dominate the region as its success in the geopolitical arena has always been connected to its access to the Black Sea. It has been expanding its influence aggressively and continuously since the 1990s by creating numerous “grey areas” or by simply occupying the surrounding territories. Moscow’s strategy is always the same.
Needless to say, such a state of play negatively affects the economy inside the region. Both Türkiye, one of the strongest states of the Black Sea region both militarily and economically, and the states that are directly affected by Russian aggression, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, are constantly facing economic challenges arising from the war. Romania and Bulgaria, even though they are part of the EU and NATO, are still subject to Russia’s influence through disinformation, energy dependence, and its malign activities. Such a state of play underlines the urgent need for a new workable Black Sea regional strategy, where Russia’s defeat is the top priority.
The only way to ensure long-lasting peace in the Black Sea region is Russia’s defeat. While some may argue that it is not clear what Russia’s defeat and Ukraine’s victory means, this will translate into a new global security architecture. This requires reforming the United Nations, where Russia occupies a seat at the Security Council and continues to paralyze its work, as well as liberating the territories of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova that are occupied by Russian military forces. It also means that Russia should be demilitarized and denuclearized. The key to victory lies in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov as well as in Crimea, which is both the weakest spot for Vladimir Putin and a symbol of his geopolitical victories. Only by aiming for this goal can we ensure that the Kremlin is falling apart. Here are several arguments on how it should be done.
Increase Support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces
The only European army that possesses real combat experience against one of the largest armies and the biggest country in the world is Ukraine; therefore, it is the best shot the world has today in preventing Russian territorial aggression in Europe.
Creativity and flexibility have helped Ukraine eliminate US $60-million Russian warships with US $250,000 Ukrainian drones. As with every war, new technologies are brought to the frontlines. Starting as a purely enthusiastic initiative, these drones are one of the main weapons that helped to eliminate Russia’s fleet. Ukraine has already developed several types of new drones, for instance, SeaBaby and MAGURA-V. Drones are also used as a source of intelligence, which helps save soldiers’ lives. Unfortunately, Russia and its allies, such as Iran, are learning fast, and now relatively cheap drones are being used to attack not only Ukraine but also Israel.[xiii] Therefore, Ukraine needs new tools to tackle these challenges.
Nevertheless, even thousands of drones are not enough to win the war. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, which mostly consists of volunteers who joined the army in February 2022 to protect their country, are demonstrating an unprecedented level of professionalism given their results on the battlefield. However, the long-awaited counter-offensive in 2023 did not go as planned. One of the reasons for this was the lack of ammunition provided to Ukraine.
There is the concern that Ukraine is not a NATO member state; therefore, it cannot be fully supported by the Alliance. However, the world sees that one does not have to be a member state when it comes to the attack on Israel, where the fighter jets of NATO allies are in the sky to shoot down Iranian Shahed drones—the very same drones that are constantly destroying Ukrainian infrastructure. So, the question is obviously not about membership.
It is not hard to imagine what Ukraine’s Armed Forces are capable of when given the proper amount of ammunition and weapons when they request it from their Western partners. Ukraine is not asking for boots on the ground, nor does it ask for something impossible: rather, it asks for air defence systems to protect its cities, ammunition, artillery and missiles, tanks, and fighter jets. This will help to save the lives of people who are working on saving the economy, which is suffering from the consequences of the war.
Invest in Ukraine Today, Prevent Conflicts Tomorrow
Another reason why it is in NATO’s best interest to help Ukraine win is that while fighting, Ukraine buys time for all NATO members before a potentially larger war with Russia and its accomplices, such as China, Iran, and North Korea.
Ukraine in NATO is not a burden but an asset to its security. It is also a great advantage for the Alliance to ensure security and prosperity in the Black Sea region if the majority of its littoral states are all part of NATO. This would send a clear signal to Russia and its allies on the decisiveness of the Alliance and its ability to unite in the face of the Russian threat. For this reason, NATO expansion should be a part of its long-term security strategy. Of the six littoral states in the region, three of them are already NATO members, and Ukraine and Georgia aspire for NATO membership. Additionally, Moldova aspires to join the EU together with Ukraine and Georgia. Each country, together with NATO allies, should work out a clear strategy for ending the occupation of their territories: defeating Russia is only one of the steps towards it.
Security, power, and militarisation—this is what will help to ensure stability in the region. The war is far from over, and NATO must develop a Black Sea strategy right away. Waiting only enables Russia to proceed and sets the precedent for other countries to incite aggression, such as Iran and China to attack Israel and proceed with planning to attack Taiwan. The era of peace is over—the era of wars and conflicts has begun again, and the score is 2:1 in favour of Russia and its allies so far.
About the Author
Maryna Karlevits is a foreign policy advisor to Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko, an expert in political science and international relations, and an interpreter. She previously worked for the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on international education for diplomats and civil servants. Her areas of expertise lie in international security, particularly but not limited to nuclear non-proliferation, and Russian and Chinese strategic culture. Currently, she is focused on international European and transatlantic security and European integration issues.
Notes
[i] Julia Davis on X, March 29, 2024, accessed April 15, 2024, https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1773485843778351171.
[ii] ”EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes | European Commission,” EU Solidarity With Ukraine, n.d., https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/eu-assistance-ukraine/eu-ukraine-solidarity-lanes_en.
[iii] “How The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Has Further Aggravated the Global Food Crisis,” Consilium, n.d., https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/how-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-has-further-aggravated-the-global-food-crisis/.
[iv] “Black Sea Grain Initiative | Joint Coordination Centre | United Nations,” United Nations, n.d., https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative.
[v] “А Classified Report for kremlin's Top Leadership, Which Contains Information on Breakdown of Grain Agreement,” Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, July 25, 2023, https://gur.gov.ua/en/content/zakryta-dopovid-dlia-kremlivskoi-verkhivky-rozkryvaie-iak-same-rosiiany-zryvaly-zernovu-uhodu.html
[vi] “Russia Launches ‘Hellish’ Second-night Attack on Ukraine’s Odesa,” Al Jazeera, July 19, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/19/russia-attacks-ukraines-odesa-explosions-reported-in-sevastopol.
[vii] “How Ukraine Has Broken Russia’s Naval Supremacy in Black Sea,” DW, February 17, 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/while-land-war-is-frozen-in-stalemate-ukraine-still-achieves-victories-against-russia-at-sea/a-68283276
[viii] Ukrainian Air Force on X, April 3, 2024, accessed April 15, 2024, https://x.com/kpszsu/status/1775423417858101708?s=46
[ix] Oksana Bedratenko, “Ukraine Says Russia’s Attacks Are Threatening Energy Security,” Voice of America, April 1, 2024, https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-says-russia-s-attacks-are-threatening-energy-security-/7549755.html
[x] “NATO Societies Must be Ready for War,” Royal United Services Institute, n.d., https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/nato-societies-must-be-ready-war.
[xi] “Ukraine’s Allies Are Gaming Out a World in Which the US Retreats,” Bloomberg, February 18, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-18/ukraine-s-allies-are-gaming-out-a-world-in-which-the-us-retreats
[xii] “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of the National Intelligence, February 6, 2023, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf
[xiii] “Explainer: The ‘Kamikadze’ Drones Iran Used to Attack Israel,” RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty, April 14, 2024, https://www.rferl.org/amp/iran-shahed-drones-israel-attack/32904882.html
Cover image: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Snake_Island_%28Black_Sea%29.jpg
