NATO after Trump: Main challenges for the Biden administration
As Joe Biden takes office as the 46th President of the United States, he will face many challenges in mending transatlantic relations. Former US President Donald Trump has left a great divide within the transatlantic Alliance. His threats to pull the US out of NATO if allied states failed to raise their military expenditures, as well as his generally aggressive rhetoric, aimed to decrease the value of the Alliance. Even though Trump had made some valid points concerning some persistent problems within the Alliance before he took office, such as the fact that the European allies had become too reliant on the US military, the statements he made on this issue were quite controversial and, as many European leaders saw, not fair. Therefore, the mistrust between the two sides of the Atlantic came to be an even more pressing issue. Now, as a new president is set to take office, it is important to analyze notions in Biden’s narratives that indicate that the US will try to mend the relationships between the two sides in order to rejoin forces and become even stronger.
INTRODUCTION
The US presidential elections are far behind us now, though the new president has just recently taken over the office. During his presidential campaign, US President Joe Biden proposed many initiatives that would relieve tensions not only among Americans but also among NATO allies. Even though there are many changes to come, as one can see the stark differences between former US President Donald Trump and Biden, it remains unclear as to how and when President Biden will start working towards mending the transatlantic relationship that was severely damaged by Trump.
Trump was highly critical of NATO, claiming that it is an ineffective organization and blaming most Allies for free riding at the expense of the United States. He even went as far as to threaten to withdraw the United States from the Alliance if the member states failed to raise their military expenditures. Trump mostly blamed Germany, the largest European economy, for not doing enough to enhance its own security. His unexpected deal with the Taliban terrorist forces, signed early in 2020, also came as a surprise to NATO Allies, most notably the United States’ readiness to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in just a few months’ time. As the US administration signed this deal without consulting with NATO members, Allied states may be left on their own in Afghanistan, a mission that was initiated by the US. The list of the effects that Donald Trump had on the Alliance and its stability can go on.
Joe Biden might be the leader that the Alliance has been longing for. In his speeches, Biden has shown support for the Alliance and pledged to uphold the American promise to keep NATO alive and well. Taking into consideration the effect Trump has left not only on foreign countries but also domestically, one must wonder: Will Biden be able to keep his promises to guard NATO? Will the Biden administration be the remedy European allies have been hoping for so long? Or maybe the celebration was premature? However, one must remember that Trump’s presidency was not easy for either side of the Atlantic.
The aim of this article is to discuss the main issues inside NATO between the US and European member states that were identified by Trump during his presidency. I argue that Biden must address these issues to mend the scars between the two sides of the Atlantic and revive the Alliance.
THE UNITED STATES AND NATO: MAIN ISSUES FROM TRUMP’S PERSPECTIVE
Over the past four years, Trump has severely criticized European allies for their insufficient contribution to the Alliance. Moreover, this rhetoric continued during his re-election campaign, increasing worry among NATO countries during the elections.
Trump’s criticisms were not without reason. Trump had seen what some might have overlooked—many NATO allies were not contributing enough financially. However, that did not mean that, as Trump put it, they were free riding at the expense of the United States. During the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, it was concluded that countries should raise their military expenditures to give the Alliance a boost. But, as of 2016, only four allies (namely the United States, United Kingdom, Greece, and Estonia[i]) had met this mark. This can explain why Trump felt compelled to attack the Alliance in the first place.
Furthermore, Trump tried to discredit the Alliance to earn public support. Surprisingly enough, the percentage of people in the US who held a favourable opinion of NATO increased. However, this increased division between Democrats and Republicans as the gap between the parties and their support for NATO grew during Trump’s presidency. In a 2019 survey, more than 60% of Democrats and 45% of Republicans held a favourable opinion of NATO.[ii] Nonetheless, this rhetoric widened the great divide between the United States and its European allies, as many states saw this approach as hostile and unjust, which was further amplified after Trump made an announcement that Article 5 will only be valid if the country that needed help had met the military expenditure threshold.[iii]
It is thus not a surprise that after four years in office Trump has left a mark on the Alliance itself. Before his election, questions on burden sharing amongst Allies had been on the American agenda for NATO; however, former President Barack Obama did not actively address the problem. Obama’s approach to this was more diplomatic; rather than attacking Allied states face-on, he used less drastic means. For example, while he called France and Britain “free-riders” for not taking as much responsibility as they should have, he never threatened to withdraw the US from the Alliance.[iv] For Trump, dissatisfaction with NATO was one of the pillars upon which he built his presidency.[v]
This, in effect, has caused many European countries to behave cautiously as the Trump presidency has left them not knowing what or if anything at all can be expected from the United States in case the need arises. This was best described by French president Emanuel Macron who described NATO as “brain dead”, partly referring to the actions of not only Trump but also his predecessor Barack Obama that have fostered distrust between the two sides of the Atlantic. Trump has contributed to this, for example, by announcing that the US will unilaterally pull all troops out of Syria, where many other NATO countries have been involved, without discussing it with the Alliance at first (although shortly after he reconsidered this move).[vi] This was only one instance in which Trump acted without considering the way NATO works, which is following the principle of unanimity. Furthermore, another example of US unilateral action was also seen in the recent US-Taliban peace deal, which was signed in late February 2020. One of the most disputed points among NATO members was about the withdrawal of the US and its member state troops from Afghanistan.[vii] In response, many NATO members, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, and international security experts warned that by pulling out troops too soon, Afghanistan might become a haven for terrorist forces, discrediting Trump’s decision. However, Allies’ criticism did not achieve any progress, since Trump’s “America first” policy is all about the needs of Americans, without consideration for others.
Another point to be made is the tension between Germany and the United States, which correlates with the issue of funding the Alliance. Trump has been widely and openly critical of German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the fact that although Germany is the largest European economy, it has not been contributing enough to the Alliance. This has, in turn, created a somewhat hostile environment between the two largest NATO economies.[viii] Relations between Germany and the United States have been the centre of attention for many NATO states, as Trump tried to put more pressure on Germany to do more for European safety. This has caused turmoil inside the Alliance, which has led to deep distrust between both sides. This has to be tackled in the future if one expects NATO to survive.
BIDEN ON NATO: PROMISES FOR A BETTER FUTURE
Although Trump is no longer a threat to the existence of the Alliance, the question one should consider is not only how Joe Biden will mend this relationship, but also will European allies be willing to step toward a country that not so long ago threatened their way of existence. While it is clear that there is support from both the American public and Congress to rebuild US ties with European countries, it still not clear how much time and effort it will take to do so. Therefore, the new president of the United States should move with careful consideration.
While Trump has left a deep scar in Europe, this is not necessarily a bad thing. For instance, Angela Merkel has indicated that Europe is ready to be more proactive and involved in enhancing and ensuring its own security.[ix] This can frame the Alliance from a different perspective—the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic should not be dominated by the United States but rather more equal. To regain its position in the international arena, Biden ought to be more considerate to other member states and take a more serious approach when consulting Allies in any given matter.[x] A return to previous relationships (pre-Trump) is no longer an option; therefore, the Alliance must find a way to move forward and adapt to the new global changes. For Europe, this means increasing self-reliance rather than being constantly in the shadow of the United States. Developing and enhancing its internal security should be Europe’s upmost priority. It will take some time for European leaders to adjust to the new changes in America.
The issue of being too dependent on US forces has been widely criticized in France. This criticism culminated in President Emmanuel Macron’s aforementioned ‘brain-dead’ comments on NATO’s inability to function properly. France has been amongst the strongest voices calling for enhanced European internal security, and during Trump’s presidency, this rhetoric only became stronger. Furthermore, France has called for more European allied autonomy in NATO as well as strengthening the concept of “European defence as a pillar within NATO”.[xi] Thus, one can see that the Biden administration also faces the challenge of trying to reconcile France with the rest of the Allied states, as it is clear that France wishes to take a leading role in enhancing the overall security and autonomy of the European states.
On the other side of the coin, European leaders do recognize the importance of having the United States as an ally. Almost immediately after the election results came in, NATO Secretary General invited Biden to rebuild the transatlantic relationship and preserve the Alliance.[xii] Later this spring, the NATO summit in Brussels will be the first challenge for Biden, since there are many threats that should be addressed. It will also be the first time that Biden addresses all Allies directly as the US president, which will truly be a pivotal moment early on in his presidency. The immediacy of this summit shows the eagerness and hope that NATO holds for a Biden presidency.
The issue for Biden is not only about rebuilding the relationship with NATO Allies but also about reinventing the American brand in general. Under Trump’s America First policy, the world’s perception of America as a partner and ally changed significantly. Now, many countries view America as unreliable and to some extent even dangerous.[xiii] Biden must also tackle this problem. Without doing so he faces the risk of losing many valuable US allies, including the ones that the US stands together with in NATO.[xiv] Biden and his administration have already given insight into the main aspects of their foreign policy that would reassert American leadership and uphold democratic and liberal values. Nonetheless, taking into consideration the points mentioned above, this might prove to be a more difficult task than Biden himself might had hoped for.
Perhaps the most difficult task for Biden when talking about mending relationships with Allies, however, will be repairing relations with Germany. During Trump’s presidency the ties between the United States and Germany deteriorated to an all-time low. Germans are looking for a better future under the Biden presidency. What makes this task tricky for Biden is the fact that long-time Chancellor Angela Merkel has almost reached the end of her last term. Thus, there is no certainty as to what the future holds for Germany when her successor takes the chancellorship.[xv] Nonetheless, since Trump’s presidency, Germany has started to take up more responsibility in Europe with the idea that, for the sake of the Alliance, Europe should become more self-reliant, which in turn means the shrinking of American influence in Europe.[xvi]
Over the next four years, not only Germany but also the rest of the Alliance should see Biden’s presidency as a chance to build up their own strength. However, another problem European allies should work to tackle, with which the Biden administration might help, is to break down the obstacles that would prevent further security cooperation between the European states themselves in order for their militaries to operate more efficiently.[xvii] This cannot be done without a sacrifice: if Biden really wishes to mend the rift between the United States and European member states, he must accept that after the Trump era, the seed of independence in Europe has been sown. While cooperation and multilateralism are still sought and promoted in diplomatic terms, Europe has grown more serious about enhancing its own security. Solely relying on the help of the Americans is no longer an option.[xviii] Nonetheless, this does not mean that European allies will shift away from the Americans. Furthermore, it must be noted that even under Biden’s presidency, European states will be expected to uphold their defence spending obligations. This issue will not leave the NATO agenda until all states uphold their financial responsibilities to the Alliance.[xix] Still, Biden ought to be cautious and understanding towards European leaders, as the last four yours under Trump has left Europe looking for new ways to develop their own security, without the interference of the United States.
CONCLUSIONS
After four years of Trump’s America First policy, the rift between NATO member states is larger than ever before. Even though Trump is not the first president to criticize European allies for not contributing enough to their security and for uneven burden sharing, one must realize that this is to some extent America’s own doing. In seeking the dominant role in international politics after the Cold War, America actively aided Europe in order to restore, promote, and uphold democracy, which unintentionally left Europeans without the possibility to care for themselves in security matters. These four years have been a wake-up call for European leaders to look inwards rather than expect help from the Americans.
At the end of 2020, NATO published an article stressing the present and future threats for the Alliance. While Russia’s role as the dominant threat to the Alliance is nothing new, this report also stresses that the Alliance should look out for China’s growing power and influence as well as threats emanating from issues such as environmental threats and the Arctic. The necessity for security alliances such as NATO has not decreased, but the outlook on this specific alliance has significantly changed over the last four years. If the Allied states want to be able to tackle all threats, then they ought to work together. Although the United States is the largest and most capable Ally, Joe Biden ought to put his focus not only on the problems at hand but also on cooperation in between Allied states. His first order of business should be to try and reconcile the member states, as the tension inside the Alliance is still present and growing. This poses serious threats to NATO’s capabilities. The question about state sovereignty has not disappeared, and Biden must consider that now after Trump, the European Allies are more eager to actively engage in their own defence.
Furthermore, to be able to stand against all these threats, Allies ought to work out their differences or completely put them aside. However, as long as the Allied states will look at the US as a foe or even aggressor, this is not possible. Joe Biden only has four years (without a guarantee for re-election), and he must be quick to at least try and resolve these issues. However, Biden must not underestimate the spark that has been lit in Europe by Emmanuel Macron when calling out for stronger security cooperation between states in Europe.
Biden should appreciate that Germany has stayed by the United States no matter how much Trump criticized it. Nevertheless, it would be wise to work on further tightening this relationship. The US and Germany are the two biggest economies within NATO; therefore, their cooperation can be crucial when facing certain threats. What Germany lacks in military capacity, it makes up for in respect from other European states; thus, Biden should work on bringing their relationship closer through bilateral and multilateral cooperation.
Overall, Joe Biden has many issues to tackle as the new president of the United States. The question remains how willing the European allies will be to cooperate after four years of Donald Trump.
Notes
[i] “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2013-2020)”, NATO press release, October 21, 2020, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/10/pdf/pr-2020-1...
[ii] Moira Fagan and Jacob Poushter, “NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States”, Pew Research, February 9, 2020, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/02/09/nato-seen-favorably-across....
[iii] Fabrice Pothier and Alexander Vershbow, NATO and Trump The Case for a New Transatlantic Bargain (Wahington DC: Atlantic Council, 2017), 1.
[iv] Mark Landler, “Obama Criticizes the ‘Free Riders’ Among America’s Allies”, New York Times, March 10, 2016, accessed January 23, 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/10/world/middleeast/obama-criticizes-the....
[v] Guy Chazan and Michael Peel, “Confidence in Nato in sharp decline”, Financial Times, February 10, 2020, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/4cbd8196-4b29-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5.
[vi] James Dobbins, “Is NATO Brain Dead?”, Rand Corp., December 3, 2019, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.rand.org/blog/2019/12/is-nato-brain-dead.html.
[vii] “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America”, US Government, US Department of State, February 29, 2020, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-....
[viii] Davis VanOpdorp, “Donald Trump accuses Germany of 'making a fortune' off US soldiers”, DW, August 5, 2020, accessed January 11, 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/trump-nato-germany/a-54451443.
[ix] Joshua Posaner and Nette Nöstlinger, “Merkel to Biden: Europe ready to ‘take on more responsibility’”, Politico, November 9, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-joe-biden-europe-will-take....
[x] Bart M.J. Szewczyk, “What Is Europe’s ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Offer to America?” Foreign Policy, December 8, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/08/biden-cant-save-europe-from-buzzwords/.
[xi] Reuters staff, “European defence is a pillar within NATO - France's Macron”, Reuters, December 4, 2019, accessed January 23, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-nato-summit-france-macron/european-de....
[xii] Gabriela Baczynska, “NATO, EU invite Biden to rebuild transatlantic ties”, Reuters, November 23, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-eu/nato-eu-invite-biden-to-....
[xiii] Richard Wike, Bruce Stokes, Jacob Poushter, Laura Silver, Janell Fetterolf, and Kat Devlin, “America’s international image continues to suffer”, PEW Research, October 1, 2018, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/10/01/americas-international-ima....
[xiv] Caroll Morello, “Biden to face wary allies after four years of Trump’s ‘America First’ rhetoric”, Washington Post, December 9, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/12/09/biden-europe-allies-n....
[xv] Tom Nuttall, “Germany faces life after Angela Merkel”, The Economist, November 17, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/germany-faces-life-....
[xvi] Sophia Besch, “NATO AT 70: WHERE NEXT?” Centre for European Reform, April 3, 2019, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/nato-70-where-next.
[xvii] Stephen Kuper, “Europe’s forced shift towards defence self-reliance should raise alarms”, Defence Connect, July 7, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/key-enablers/6410-europe-s-forced-shif....
[xviii] Ana Thu Nguyen, “Macron’s Call for a European Army: Still Echoing or Forgotten?”, European Law Blog, June 22, 2020, accessed January 12, 2021, https://europeanlawblog.eu/2020/06/22/macrons-call-for-a-european-army-s....
[xix] Efi Koutsokosta, “Europe 'not off the hook' with Biden on defence spending, says former NATO chief Rasmussen”, Euro News, January 19, 2021, accessed January 23, 2021, https://www.euronews.com/2021/01/19/europe-not-off-the-hook-with-biden-o....